Reinterpreting Global GRACE Trends Based on Century‐Long GRACE‐REC Data
Reinterpreting Global GRACE Trends Based on Century‐Long GRACE‐REC Data
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DOI：
10.1029/2023wr035817
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发表时间：
2023-12
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Yulong Zhong;Baoming Tian;B. Vishwakarma;Wei Feng;Yunlong Wu;Hongbing Bai;Min Zhong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Yulong Zhong;Baoming Tian;B. Vishwakarma;Wei Feng;Yunlong Wu;Hongbing Bai;Min Zhong
准确评估淡水可用性的变化对于社会发展至关重要。先前的研究已经使用重力恢复和气候实验（GRACE）使命数据检查了流域尺度陆地水储存（TWS）的长期变化。然而，不同的流域表现出不同的空间和时间TWS变化模式。为了更好地解释GRACE时代（2003-2016年）每个流域的TWS趋势，本研究提出了一种基于世纪长的GRACE-REC数据集的新标准。该标准评估GRACE期间GRACE TWS（TrendG）、降水诱导趋势（TrendPI）和非降水诱导趋势（TrendNPI）的趋势。通过使用GRACE-REC数据计算长期气候驱动的TWS趋势的上限和下限值，提供了评估自然条件下流域TWS趋势变化范围的指标。结果表明，在本研究分析的266个全球流域中，115个流域的趋势（TrendG，TrendPI或TrendNPI）超过了与自然气候变化相关的最大或最小储水趋势。这包括20个大型盆地，34个中型盆地和61个小型盆地，表明GRACE期间TWS发生了重大变化。在此基础上，利用多源数据分析了20个大流域TWS趋势的驱动机制。通过这种方法确定的机制与我们的分析和以前的研究一致，证实了这种方法评估TWS趋势的可靠性。
Assessing changes in freshwater availability accurately is crucial for societal development. Previous studies have examined long‐term variations in basin‐scale terrestrial water storage (TWS) using Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission data. However, different basins exhibit distinct spatial and temporal TWS variation patterns. To better interpret the TWS trends in each basin during the GRACE era (2003–2016), this study proposes a novel criterion based on a century‐long GRACE‐REC data set. This criterion assesses the trends in GRACE TWS (TrendG), precipitation‐induced trends (TrendPI), and non‐precipitation‐induced trends (TrendNPI) over the GRACE period. By calculating upper and lower bound values for long‐term climate‐driven TWS trends using GRACE‐REC data, an indicator is provided to evaluate the range of TWS trend variations in a basin under natural conditions. Results reveal that among the 266 global basins analyzed in this study, the trends (TrendG, TrendPI, or TrendNPI) in 115 basins exceed the maximum or minimum water storage trends associated with natural climate variability. This includes 20 large basins, 34 medium basins, and 61 small basins, indicating significant TWS changes during the GRACE period. Furthermore, we analyze the driving mechanisms of TWS trends in the 20 large basins using multi‐source data. The mechanisms identified through this method align well with both our analysis and previous studies, confirming the reliability of this approach for assessing TWS trends.