A GCM study of future climate response to aerosol pollution reductions
A GCM study of future climate response to aerosol pollution reductions
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DOI：
10.1007/s00382-009-0573-0
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发表时间：
2010-06
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
S. Kloster;F. Dentener;J. Feichter;F. Raes;U. Lohmann;E. Roeckner;I. Fischer-Bruns
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Kloster;F. Dentener;J. Feichter;F. Raes;U. Lohmann;E. Roeckner;I. Fischer-Bruns
我们使用全球大气GCM气溶胶模式ECHAM 5-HAM来评估未来空气污染减缓战略对气候的可能影响。空气质量控制战略的重点是减少气溶胶排放。在这里，我们调查的极端情况下，在不久的将来（2030年）的气溶胶的最大可行的终端减排结合温室气体（GHG）浓度。温室气体浓度增加和气溶胶排放减少的温度响应导致全球年平均平衡温度响应为2.18 K。当气溶胶仅在工业和发电厂部门得到最大程度的减少，而其他部门仍符合当前强制执行的法规时，温度响应为1.89 K。在国内和运输部门应用最大可行减排量，而其他部门仍然符合现行立法，导致温度响应为1.39 K。单独增加温室气体浓度导致1.20 K的温度响应。我们还模拟了2-5%的全球平均降水量增加在所有考虑的情况下，水文敏感性被发现是显着高于气溶胶比温室气体。因此，我们的研究强调了未来空气污染缓解战略对气候的巨大潜在影响，并支持迫切需要减少温室气体排放。温室气体和气溶胶强迫不是独立的，因为两者都影响水文循环的变化，也受水文循环变化的影响。然而，在本研究所考虑的气溶胶排放和温室气体浓度的给定变化范围内，对温室气体浓度增加和气溶胶排放减少的气候响应是相加的。
We use the global atmospheric GCM aerosol model ECHAM5-HAM to asses possible impacts of future air pollution mitigation strategies on climate. Air quality control strategies focus on the reduction of aerosol emissions. Here we investigate the extreme case of a maximum feasible end-of-pipe abatement of aerosols in the near term future (2030) in combination with increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. The temperature response of increasing GHG concentrations and reduced aerosol emissions leads to a global annual mean equilibrium temperature response of 2.18 K. When aerosols are maximally abated only in the Industry and Powerplant sector, while other sectors stay with currently enforced regulations, the temperature response is 1.89 K. A maximum feasible abatement applied in the Domestic and Transport sector, while other sectors remain with the current legislation, leads to a temperature response of 1.39 K. Increasing GHG concentrations alone lead to a temperature response of 1.20 K. We also simulate 2–5% increases in global mean precipitation among all scenarios considered, and the hydrological sensitivity is found to be significantly higher for aerosols than for GHGs. Our study, thus highlights the huge potential impact of future air pollution mitigation strategies on climate and supports the need for urgent GHG emission reductions. GHG and aerosol forcings are not independent as both affect and are influenced by changes in the hydrological cycle. However, within the given range of changes in aerosol emissions and GHG concentrations considered in this study, the climate response towards increasing GHG concentrations and decreasing aerosols emissions is additive.