Inventing the future: scenarios, imagination, mastery and control
Inventing the future: scenarios, imagination, mastery and control
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创造未来：场景、想象力、掌握和控制
DOI：
10.1007/s11625-007-0028-7
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发表时间：
2007
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
G. Brewer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
G. Brewer
社会、行为和自然混合系统的复杂性--例如在分析、理解和试图管理气候变化和可持续发展的各个方面时遇到的系统--需要更多共同的理论框架和技术工具，而这两者都无法承受。人类活动与温室气体排放、大气变化、气候多变性以及多重影响、结果和影响有何关系？有些联系可以观察和测量，但许多联系不能。任何可以想象到的不确定性都可能发生。随着进入未来的时间框架的延长，不确定性基本上主导了传统的理论、工具、经验、习惯、过程等。根据政府间气候变化专门委员会的第四次评估报告，将人类活动与气候变化联系起来的科学共识现在几乎得到了解决。然而，对于在这种独特的、甚至是独特的情况下，谁应该做什么以及出于什么原因，共识几乎没有说明。没有关于可依赖的未来的数据。当人类试图施加其主宰和控制时，我们面临着想象许多不同和可能的“未来”的挑战。这篇文章考虑并编织了几个基本的问题、想法和主题：复杂性、人类意向性的概念、在组织和社会系统中施加控制的几种方法，以及用于想象、发明和交流未来的不同方法。
The complexity of mixed social, behavioral, and natural systems—such as those encountered while analyzing, understanding, and trying to manage aspects of climate change and sustainability, requires more common theoretical frameworks and technical tools than either can bear. How does human activity relate to greenhouse gas emissions, changes in the atmosphere, climate variability, and multiple impacts, outcomes, and effects? Some of the connections can be observed and measured, many cannot. Uncertainties of every conceivable sort can occur. As the time frame into the future extends, uncertainties essentially dominate conventional theories, tools, experiences, habits, processes, and so forth. The scientific consensus linking human activity to climate change is now all but settled according to The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The consensus says little, however, about who should be doing what and for what reasons under this singular, even unique circumstance. There are no data about the future on which to rely. We are challenged to imagine many different and possible “futures” as humankind seeks to exert its mastery and control. This essay considers and then weaves together several basic issues, ideas, and topics: complexity, the concept of human intentionality, several means used to exert control in organizations and social systems, and different methods being used to imagine, invent, and communicate the future.
(2001)
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