The opening of the Transpolar Sea Route: Logistical, geopolitical, environmental, and socioeconomic impacts
The opening of the Transpolar Sea Route: Logistical, geopolitical, environmental, and socioeconomic impacts
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DOI：
10.1016/j.marpol.2020.104178
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发表时间：
2020-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
De Jonghe, Bert
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bennett, Mia M.;Stephenson, Scott R.;De Jonghe, Bert
目前的科学模型预测，到本世纪中叶或更早的时候，夏季将出现无冰的北冰洋中部(CAO)，一条通过北极连接亚洲、北美和欧洲市场的直航航线可能很快就会开通。跨极地海上航线(TSR)将是除北海航线和西北航道之外的第三条北极航运航线。为了应对海冰厚度和范围的持续下降，以及北极和全球治理界越来越多地认识到需要预测和监管CAO的商业活动，本文研究了：(I)对TSR开放的最新估计；(Ii)TSR的商业和物流发展情景，以应对可能演变的各种运输系统；(Iii)TSR的地缘政治，重点是国际和国家法规以及俄罗斯(北极历史上的大国)和中国(新兴大国)的作用；以及(Iv)跨极航运对TSR入口处社区的当地和原居民造成的环境和社会经济后果。我们的分析旨在为有关TSR的国家和国际决策提供信息，因为尽管气候变化正在迅速进行，但在典型的决策时间范围内，仍有时间为新的北极航运走廊的出现做准备。
With current scientific models forecasting an ice-free Central Arctic Ocean (CAO) in summer by mid-century and potentially earlier, a direct shipping route via the North Pole connecting markets in Asia, North America, and Europe may soon open. The Transpolar Sea Route (TSR) would represent a third Arctic shipping route in addition to the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage. In response to the continued decline of sea ice thickness and extent and growing recognition within the Arctic and global governance communities of the need to anticipate and regulate commercial activities in the CAO, this paper examines: (i) the latest estimates of the TSR's opening; (ii) scenarios for its commercial and logistical development, addressing the various transportation systems that could evolve; (iii) the geopolitics of the TSR, focusing on international and national regulations and the roles of Russia, a historic power in the Arctic, and China, an emerging one; and (iv) the environmental and socioeconomic consequences of transpolar shipping for local and Indigenous residents of communities along the TSR's entrances. Our analysis seeks to inform national and international policymaking with regard to the TSR because although climate change is proceeding rapidly, within typical policymaking timescales, there is still time to prepare for the emergence of the new Arctic shipping corridor.