Epidemic Spreading on Complex Networks as Front Propagation into an Unstable State
Epidemic Spreading on Complex Networks as Front Propagation into an Unstable State
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DOI：
10.1007/s11538-022-01110-7
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发表时间：
2021-09
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
A. Armbruster;Matt Holzer;Noah Roselli;Lena Underwood
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Armbruster;Matt Holzer;Noah Roselli;Lena Underwood
我们通过波前传播的透镜研究了元种群疾病模型中的流行病到达时间。我们证明了PDE背景下的入侵前沿的几个特征也与网络情况有关。我们证明了网络上的易感-感染-恢复模型是线性确定的，因为非线性系统的到达时间近似于在无病状态附近线性化的系统中不稳定性的到达时间。到达时间的预测扩展到一般房室模型与一个易受感染的暴露-感染-恢复模型作为主要的例子。然后，我们研究了最近的社会流行病模型，高阶相互作用导致更快的入侵速度。对于这些被推的前沿，我们计算在这种情况下对估计到达时间的校正。最后，我们将展示如何在本地感染率的不均匀性导致更快的平均到达时间。
We study epidemic arrival times in meta-population disease models through the lens of front propagation into unstable states. We demonstrate that several features of invasion fronts in the PDE context are also relevant to the network case. We show that the susceptible-infected-recovered model on a network is linearly determined in the sense that the arrival times in the nonlinear system are approximated by the arrival times of the instability in the system linearized near the disease-free state. Arrival time predictions are extended to general compartmental models with a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered model as the primary example. We then study a recent model of social epidemics where higher-order interactions lead to faster invasion speeds. For these pushed fronts, we compute corrections to the estimated arrival time in this case. Finally, we show how inhomogeneities in local infection rates lead to faster average arrival times.