N2O emissions from the global agricultural nitrogen cycle - current state and future scenarios
N2O emissions from the global agricultural nitrogen cycle - current state and future scenarios
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DOI：
10.5194/bg-9-4169-2012
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发表时间：
2012-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Lotze-Campen, H.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bodirsky, B. L.;Popp, A.;Lotze-Campen, H.
活性氮（N-r）不仅是植物生长的重要营养元素，从而保障人类的营养，但它也严重干扰自然系统。为缓解氮素过量供应对大气、陆地、水体和大气的污染，了解全球农业氮素循环的长期发展趋势至关重要，本文采用联合收割机结合物质流模型和土地利用优化模型进行分析。第一步，我们估计1995年N-r周期的状态。在第二步中，我们创建了四个方案，为21世纪在符合SRES story-lines.Our结果表明，在1995年只有一半的氮-r适用于农田被纳入植物生物量。此外，在农田植物生物量和放牧牧场中，人类消耗的氮-氯总量不到10%。在我们的情景中，一个强大的激增的N-R循环发生在世纪的上半叶，即使在环境导向的情景。一氧化二氮（N2 O）排放量从1995年的3 Tg N2 O-N增加到2045年的7-9 Tg和2095年的5-12 Tg。因此，需要加强N-R污染缓解工作。
Reactive nitrogen (N-r) is not only an important nutrient for plant growth, thereby safeguarding human alimentation, but it also heavily disturbs natural systems. To mitigate air, land, aquatic, and atmospheric pollution caused by the excessive availability of N-r, it is crucial to understand the long-term development of the global agricultural N-r cycle.For our analysis, we combine a material flow model with a land-use optimization model. In a first step we estimate the state of the N-r cycle in 1995. In a second step we create four scenarios for the 21st century in line with the SRES story-lines.Our results indicate that in 1995 only half of the N-r applied to croplands was incorporated into plant biomass. Moreover, less than 10 per cent of all N-r in cropland plant biomass and grazed pasture was consumed by humans. In our scenarios a strong surge of the N-r cycle occurs in the first half of the 21st century, even in the environmentally oriented scenarios. Nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions rise from 3 Tg N2O-N in 1995 to 7-9 in 2045 and 5-12 Tg in 2095. Reinforced N-r pollution mitigation efforts are therefore required.