How good is the Prevent model for estimating the health benefits of prevention?
How good is the Prevent model for estimating the health benefits of prevention?
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DOI：
10.1136/jech.53.5.300
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发表时间：
1999-05-01
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Bronnum-Hansen, H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bronnum-Hansen, H
研究目的-预防是一个公共卫生模型，用于估计暴露于危险因素的变化对死亡率的影响。当通过模拟已经发生的发展来测试模型时，结果可能与实际情况有很大差异。本研究的目的是测试预防模型，将其应用到一个合成的队列中，其中的发展是不受隐藏的factors. Design的微观模拟模型的开发，以创建基本的数据，预防，并给出“准确”的结果，如危险因素的患病率和死亡率的变化。预防模拟的估计值与“精确”结果进行了比较。主要结果-模拟一个与特定原因死亡率相关的风险因素，这两种方法得到了相当相似的结果。包括两个危险因素预防倾向于稍微高估预防的健康效益. Conclusions之间的差异“确切的”死亡率和预防估计将是小的现实情况和预防提供合理的估计预防的健康效益。
Study objective-Prevent is a public health model for estimating the effect on mortality of changes in exposure to risk factors. When the model is tested by simulating a development that has already taken place, the results may differ considerably from the actual situation. The purpose of this study is to test the Prevent model by applying it to a synthetic cohort in which the development is unaffected by concealed factors.Design-A micro-simulation model was developed to create basic data for Prevent and give "exact" results as to changes in risk factor prevalences and mortality. The estimates of Prevent simulations were compared with the "exact" results.Main results-Modelling one risk factor related to a cause specific mortality gave fairly similar results by the two methods. including two risk factors Prevent tends slightly to overestimate the health benefits of prevention.Conclusions-The differences between the "exact" mortality and the Prevent estimates will be small for realistic scenarios and Prevent provide reasonable estimates of the health benefits of prevention.