Rotavirus infections and climate variability in Dhaka, Bangladesh: a time-series analysis
Rotavirus infections and climate variability in Dhaka, Bangladesh: a time-series analysis
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DOI：
10.1017/s0950268807009776
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发表时间：
2008-09-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Sack, D. A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hashizume, M.;Armstrong, B.;Sack, D. A.
人们试图通过将疾病发病率与气候因素联系起来，来解释轮状病毒感染的明显季节性；然而，很少有研究将天气的影响与其他可能导致季节性的因素分开。我们调查了孟加拉国达卡轮状病毒腹泻的医院就诊与温度、湿度和河流水位之间的关系，使用时间序列分析调整了其他混淆的季节性因素。有强有力的证据表明，高温下轮状病毒腹泻的发病率会增加，高于阈值（29摄氏度）时，温度每升高1摄氏度，就会增加40.2%。相对湿度与轮状病毒腹泻病例数呈线性反比关系。超过阈值（4.8米）的河水水位与轮状病毒腹泻病例的增加有关，每10厘米河水水位上升5.5%。我们的发现提供了证据，表明与高温、低湿度和高水位相关的因素增加了达卡轮状病毒腹泻的发病率。
Attempts to explain the clear seasonality of rotavirus infections have been made by relating disease incidence to climate factors; however, few studies have disentangled the effects of weather from other factors that might cause seasonality. We investigated the relationships between hospital visits for rotavirus diarrhoea and temperature, humidity and river level, in Dhaka, Bangladesh, using time-series analysis adjusting for other confounding seasonal factors. There was strong evidence for an increase in rotavirus diarrhoea at high temperatures, by 40.2 % for each 1 degrees C increase above a threshold (29 degrees C). Relative humidity had a linear inverse relationship with the number of cases of rotavirus diarrhoea. River level, above a threshold (4.8 m), was associated with an increase in cases of rotavirus diarrhoea, by 5.5 % per 10-cm river-level rise. Our findings provide evidence that factors associated with high temperature, low humidity and high river-level increase the incidence of rotavirus diarrhoea in Dhaka.