Initial Crisis Reaction and Poliheuristic Theory
Initial Crisis Reaction and Poliheuristic Theory
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初始危机反应和启发式理论
DOI：
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发表时间：
2004
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Christopher Sprecher
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Karl Derouen;Christopher Sprecher
Poliheuristic（PH）理论使用两阶段过程模拟外交政策决策。第一步基于简化启发式算法排除备选方案。第二步涉及从剩余的备选方案中进行选择，并可以采用更合理和补偿性的信息处理手段。PH模型假定战略/现实主义因素在过程的第二步中更为重要。该模型是1918年至1994年进行测试，使用国际危机行为数据集的危机演员。结果表明，国内政治损失对使用暴力应对危机触发有负面影响。在预期的方向上，邻接、联合民主和触发也很重要。相对实力具有积极影响，持久的竞争对手似乎并不更有可能在危机中首先使用暴力对付对方。
Poliheuristic (PH) theory models foreign policy decisions using a two-stage process. The first step eliminates alternatives on the basis of a simplifying heuristic. The second step involves a selection from amongthe remaining alternatives and can employ a more rational and compensatory means of processing information. The PH model posits that strategic/realist factors are more important in the second step of the process. The model is tested for the years 1918 to 1994, using crisis actors from the International Crisis Behavior data set. Results show that domestic political loss has a negative impact on the use of violence in response to a crisis trigger. Contiguity, joint democracy, and trigger are also significant in the expected directions. Relative capabilities have a positive impact, and enduring rivals do not appear more likely to use violence against each other as a first response in a crisis.