Forecasting cloud forest in eastern and southern Mexico: conservation insights under future climate change scenarios
Forecasting cloud forest in eastern and southern Mexico: conservation insights under future climate change scenarios
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预测墨西哥东部和南部的云林：未来气候变化情景下的保护见解
DOI：
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发表时间：
2012
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
J. Ornelas
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Octavio R. Rojas;V. Sosa;J. Ornelas
假设共同分布的物种暴露于类似的环境条件下，云雾林物种的生态位模型（ENM）的开发，以研究气候变化如何影响云雾林在墨西哥东部和南部的分布，为2050年。使用基于ENM的预测和IPCC气候变化A2和B2情景的气候数据，我们观察到云雾森林减少了54-76%，主要是在其当前范围的北方地区（马德雷山脉东方）和恰帕斯州的太平洋斜坡。随着预测的2050年气候变化，Los Tuxtlas地区和El Cielo生物圈保护区的云雾林可能面临严重的灭绝威胁，因为观察到向上迁移到更高的海拔。我们的研究结果增加了最近的研究发现气候变化对山地森林的负面影响，但气候变化的负面影响可能会因该地区目前的环境变化而加剧。云雾林的生态位特征与极端气候情景的预测相结合，构成了一种适当的工具，可以用来确定积极的养护和管理战略应重点关注的适当领域。
Assuming that co-distributed species are exposed to similar environmental conditions, ecological niche models (ENMs) of cloud forest species were developed to study how climate change could affect the distribution of cloud forest in eastern and southern Mexico for the year 2050. Using ENM-based predictions and climatic data for IPCC climate change A2 and B2 scenarios, we observed 54–76% reduction of the cloud forest, mainly in the northern region of its current range (Sierra Madre Oriental) and the Pacific slope of Chiapas. With predicted 2050 climate change, cloud forest in the Los Tuxtlas region and El Cielo Biosphere Reserve may face a serious threat of extinction due to the observed upward migration to higher elevations. Our results add to recent studies detecting negative impacts of climate change in montane forests, but the negative impacts of climate change might be exacerbated by current environmental changes in the region. The integration of ecological-niche characteristics of cloud forest in conjunction with projections of extreme climate scenarios constitute a suitable tool to define appropriate areas in which proactive conservation and management strategies should be focused.