Climate change projections of sea level extremes along the California coast
Climate change projections of sea level extremes along the California coast
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-007-9376-7
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发表时间：
2008-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Flick, Reinhard E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cayan, Daniel R.;Bromirski, Peter D.;Flick, Reinhard E.
加利福尼亚州的沿海观测和全球模型预测表明，加利福尼亚州的开放海岸和河口将在下个世纪经历海平面上升。在过去的几十年里，根据加州潮汐计的一小组数据，上升的历史趋势约为 20 厘米/世纪，与全球平均海平面的估计值非常相似。在接下来的几十年里，气候模型模拟产生的变暖表明，海平面上升（SLR）可能大大超过现代人类在加利福尼亚海岸和河口发展期间经历的速度。未来的 SLR 范围是根据一组由较低 (B1)、中上 (A2) 和较高 (A1fi) 温室气体排放情景控制的气候模拟来估计的。根据 GCM 中的海洋变暖预测 SLR、SLR 的观测证据以及使用简单气候模型的单独计算，得出了 2070 年至 2099 年期间海平面可能上升的范围，从 11 厘米到 72 厘米。预测的天文潮汐与预测的天气强迫、厄尔尼诺相关的变化和长期 SLR 相结合，给出了 2005-2100 年一系列每小时海平面预测。海平面的逐渐上升逐渐加剧了风暴造成的高潮、巨浪和波浪的影响，以及来自塞拉利昂和沿海山区流域的淡水洪水的影响。当这些因素同时发生时，极端海平面的发生就会很明显。随着未来海平面上升幅度的增加，极端事件的频率和强度相对于当前水平呈急剧上升的模式。
California's coastal observations and global model projections indicate that California's open coast and estuaries will experience rising sea levels over the next century. During the last several decades, the upward historical trends, quantified from a small set of California tide gages, have been approximately 20 cm/century, quite similar to that estimated for global mean sea level. In the next several decades, warming produced by climate model simulations indicates that sea level rise (SLR) could substantially exceed the rate experienced during modem human development along the California coast and estuaries. A range of future SLR is estimated from a set of climate simulations governed by lower (B1), middle-upper (A2), and higher (A1fi) GHG emission scenarios. Projecting SLR from the ocean warming in GCMs, observational evidence of SLR, and separate calculations using a simple climate model yields a range of potential sea level increases, from 11 to 72 cm, by the 2070-2099 period. The combination of predicted astronomical tides with projected weather forcing, El Nino related variability, and secular SLR, gives a series of hourly sea level projections for 2005-2100. Gradual sea level rise progressively worsens the impacts of high tides, surge and waves resulting from storms, and also freshwater floods from Sierra and coastal mountain catchments. The occurrence of extreme sea levels is pronounced when these factors coincide. The frequency and magnitude of extreme events, relative to current levels, follows a sharply escalating pattern as the magnitude of future sea level rise increases.