Development of Risk Analysis Method for Building Projects
Development of Risk Analysis Method for Building Projects
复制标题
建筑项目风险分析方法的开发
DOI：
10.3130/jaabe.1.2_157
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发表时间：
2002
影响因子：
1.3
通讯作者：
T. Kaneta
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
T. Tsai;Shuzo Furusaka;T. Kaneta
近十年来，日本国内外对风险管理过程、合同关系、风险分析技术的发展等问题进行了大量的研究和探讨。但是，从现场工程师的角度探讨项目风险的研究却很少。尤其是日本的施工现场，对风险管理的重视程度不够，风险管理通常是在施工阶段进行的。然而，要正确地进行施工现场的风险管理，就必须了解项目风险的量化机理，通过风险与成本的权衡，制定降低项目风险的风险策略。本研究首先利用FTA发展出一种量化分析方法，并利用项目相关者的数据来验证此方法的有效性。通过与40名项目经理的头脑风暴讨论，提出了650个具体描述的风险发生原因。然后，运用二维评价法提取了32个风险发生原因。最后，开发了对话式风险管理决策支持系统。
abstract In the past decade, both inside and outside of Japan, a lot of studies and researches have been done on the problems concerning the risk management process, the contract relation, and the development of risk analysis technique. But, there are very few studies discussing the project risk from the viewpoints of jobsite engineers. Especially, risk management, which has been usually processed in the empiricism, is not considered deeply on the construction sites in Japan. However, it is necessary to understand the quantitative mechanism of project risk to proceed risk management in the construction site properly, and set up the risk strategies by trade-off of risk and cost to reduce the project risk. This study started with using FTA to develop a quantitative analysis method, and using the data from the stakeholders of project to prove this method is useful. And, 650 risk occurrence causes in concrete description were emerged in a discussion with 40 project managers by brainstorming. Then, 32 risk occurrence causes were extracted by the method of two-dimension evaluation. Finally, the decision support system of risk management in a dialogue way was developed.