Policy interactions, risk and price formation in carbon markets
Policy interactions, risk and price formation in carbon markets
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2009.07.042
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发表时间：
2009-12
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
W. Blyth;D. Bunn;J. Kettunen;T. Wilson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
W. Blyth;D. Bunn;J. Kettunen;T. Wilson
碳定价是激励企业投资碳减排的重要机制。碳市场的价格形成涉及政策目标、动态技术成本和市场规则之间复杂的相互作用。由于研发外部性，碳定价可能会导致投资不足，需要额外的政策，而这些政策本身也会影响市场价格。此外，减排成本取决于边干边学的技术部署程度。本文介绍了基于边际减排成本（MAC）曲线的分析框架，旨在直观地了解碳市场的关键动态和风险因素。该框架扩展了市场通常的静态 MAC 表示，以纳入政策互动和一些技术成本动态。分析表明，支持大规模部署成熟的减排技术可以抑制边际减排成本，有时甚至为零，同时增加总减排成本。然而，对早期研发的支持可能会降低总减排成本和碳价格风险。该分析的一个重要方面是将风险管理考虑因素纳入能源政策的制定中，因为随机模型的结果表明碳价格和公共成本的出现在政策预期周围存在广泛的分布。
Carbon pricing is an important mechanism for providing companies with incentives to invest in carbon abatement. Price formation in carbon markets involves a complex interplay between policy targets, dynamic technology costs, and market rules. Carbon pricing may under-deliver investment due to R&D externalities, requiring additional policies which themselves affect market prices. Also, abatement costs depend on the extent of technology deployment due to learning-by-doing. This paper introduces an analytical framework based on marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves with the aim of providing an intuitive understanding of the key dynamics and risk factors in carbon markets. The framework extends the usual static MAC representation of the market to incorporate policy interactions and some technology cost dynamics. The analysis indicates that supporting large-scale deployment of mature abatement technologies suppresses the marginal cost of abatement, sometimes to zero, whilst increasing total abatement costs. However, support for early stage R&D may reduce both total abatement cost and carbon price risk. An important aspect of the analysis is in elevating risk management considerations into energy policy formation, as the results of the stochastic modelling indicate wide distributions for the emergence of carbon prices and public costs around the policy expectations.