Phenotypic plasticity and evolutionary demographic responses to climate change: taking theory out to the field
Phenotypic plasticity and evolutionary demographic responses to climate change: taking theory out to the field
复制标题
DOI：
10.1111/j.1365-2435.2012.02043.x
复制
发表时间：
2013-08-01
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Lefevre, Francois
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chevin, Luis-Miguel;Collins, Sinead;Lefevre, Francois
1. 快速的气候变化既对自然种群施加了强大的选择压力——可能降低其增长率并导致基因进化——又影响个体生物的生理和发育。理解和预测全球变化下种群的命运，包括灭绝和地理分布范围的改变，需要分析这些过程的相互作用，这在进化生物学中一直是一个灰色地带。
2. 我们回顾了有关在时间或空间上变化的环境中表型可塑性、基因进化和种群统计学相互作用的最新理论。然后我们讨论了这些模型的主要局限性以及在野外检验理论预测的困难，特别是关于表型选择的变化、反应规范参数的（协）方差的进化以及瞬态动力学方面的困难。
3. 我们使用两个应对气候变化的生理反应的标志性例子——面临更干燥气候和极端温度的树木，以及二氧化碳升高环境下的海洋浮游植物——来强调相对被忽视的问题，并指出它们所带来的理论和实证挑战。这些例子尤其表明，一方面是年龄特异性的可塑性和选择模式，另一方面是群落相互作用和功能的变化，需要从理论和实证上进一步研究，以便更好地理解野外环境中对气候变化的进化种群统计学响应。
1. Rapid climate change both imposes strong selective pressures on natural populations - potentially reducing their growth rate and causing genetic evolution - and affects the physiology and development of individual organisms. Understanding and predicting the fates of populations under global change, including extinctions and geographical range shifts, requires analysing the interplay of these processes, which has long been a grey area in evolutionary biology.2. We review recent theory on the interaction of phenotypic plasticity, genetic evolution and demography in environments that change in time or space. We then discuss the main limitations of the models and the difficulties in testing theoretical predictions in the wild, notably regarding changes in phenotypic selection, the evolution of (co)variances of reaction norm parameters, and transient dynamics.3. We use two landmark examples of physiological responses to climate change - trees facing drier climate and extreme temperatures, and marine phytoplankton under rising CO2 - to highlight relatively neglected questions and indicate the theoretical and empirical challenges that they raise. These examples illustrate notably that age-specific patterns of plasticity and selection on the one hand, and changes in community interactions and functioning on the other hand, need to be further investigated theoretically and empirically for a better understanding of evolutionary demographic responses to climate change in the wild.