The Dynamics of Recovery: A Framework
The Dynamics of Recovery: A Framework
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复苏的动力：一个框架
DOI：
10.1007/978-3-540-24787-6_10
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发表时间：
2004
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
S. Miles
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Stephanie E. Chang;S. Miles
每一场灾难都提醒我们，从经济角度来看，损失不是瞬间发生的，而是在有时漫长而复杂的恢复过程中积累起来的。此外，灾害是空间事件，对一些地方和这些地方内的一些群体的影响比其他地方更严重。在自然灾害和人为事件中都可以观察到这些影响。因此，在2001年9月11日的悲剧中，世贸中心大楼的损失和数千人的生命本身并不构成这场灾难的经济影响。11日地区生产总值(GRP)的损失本身也没有。相反，这场灾难的经济影响强烈地受到了在接下来的几天和几个月里做出的众多决定的影响--是否将办公室搬迁到新泽西州以及搬迁多久，是否裁员和裁员人数，以及是否向纽约市经济注入刺激性支出以及注入多少资金。类似的事后决策对洪水或地震等自然灾害的恢复有很大影响。换言之，灾后恢复过程对于了解灾害的空间经济影响至关重要，但灾后恢复过程本身极其复杂和不确定。
Each disaster reminds us that, from an economic standpoint, losses do not occur instantaneously, but are accumulated over the course of a sometimes long and complex recovery process. Moreover, disasters are spatial events that impact some places and some groups within those places more heavily than others. These effects can be observed in both natural disasters and human-induced events. Thus in the September 11th tragedy of 2001, the loss of the World Trade Center towers and the thousands of human lives do not in themselves constitute the economic impact of the disaster. Neither does the loss of gross regional product (GRP) on the 11th itself. Rather, the economic impact of the disaster is strongly influenced by the multitude of decisions made in the days and months following — decisions regarding whether to relocate an office to New Jersey and for how long, whether to lay off workers and how many, and whether to inject stimulus spending into the New York City economy and how much. Similar post-event decisions strongly influence recovery in natural disasters such as floods or earthquakes. In other words, the process of disaster recovery is critical to understanding the spatial economic impacts of disasters, yet the recovery process itself is extremely complex and uncertain.