When will individuals meet their personalized probabilities? A philosophical note on risk prediction
When will individuals meet their personalized probabilities? A philosophical note on risk prediction
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s10654-020-00700-w
复制
发表时间：
2020-11-28
影响因子：
13.6
通讯作者：
Mulder, Jesse M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dekkers, Olaf M.;Mulder, Jesse M.
风险预测是医学的中心目标之一。然而，最终的预测——完美地预测个人是否真的会患上某种疾病——对于几乎所有的疾病来说仍然遥不可及。最终个性化预测的一个关键假设是，相关意义上的个体风险存在。在本文中，我们认为个人层面的完美预测将会失败——我们将通过提供语用、认识论、概念和本体论的论证来做到这一点。
Risk prediction is one of the central goals of medicine. However, ultimate prediction-perfectly predicting whether individuals will actually get a disease-is still out of reach for virtually all conditions. One crucial assumption of ultimate personalized prediction is that individual risks in the relevant sense exist. In the present paper we argue that perfect prediction at the individual level will fail-and we will do so by providing pragmatic, epistemic, conceptual, and ontological arguments.