Reconciling global-model estimates and country reporting of anthropogenic forest CO2 sinks
Reconciling global-model estimates and country reporting of anthropogenic forest CO2 sinks
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DOI：
10.1038/s41558-018-0283-x
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发表时间：
2018-10-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Zaehle, Soenke
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Grassi, Giacomo;House, Jo;Zaehle, Soenke
实现《巴黎协定》的长期温度目标需要以森林为基础的减缓。实现这一目标的集体进展将通过《巴黎协定》的全球盘点进行评估。目前，全球模式（反映在IPCC评估报告中）和国家温室气体清单汇总（UNFCCC下）之间的全球人为土地利用净排放量差异约为4GtCO（2）yr（-1）。我们发现，这种差异的很大一部分（约3.2 GtCO（2）yr（-1））可以解释为概念上的差异，在人为森林汇估计，有关的环境变化的影响和管理的地区的代表性。为了更可靠地跟踪全球盘点之下的集体进展，需要对模型和清单之间的这些概念差异进行协调。我们实施了一种新的全球土地模型结果分解方法，使其与温室气体清单具有更大的可比性。这有助于更深入地了解模型与清单之间的差异，从而能够对基于森林的减缓进行更透明的分析，并促进更准确的全球盘点。
Achieving the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement requires forest-based mitigation. Collective progress towards this goal will be assessed by the Paris Agreement's Global stocktake. At present, there is a discrepancy of about 4GtCO(2) yr(-1) in global anthropogenic net land-use emissions between global models (reflected in IPCC assessment reports) and aggregated national GHG inventories (under the UNFCCC). We show that a substantial part of this discrepancy (about 3.2 GtCO(2) yr(-1)) can be explained by conceptual differences in anthropogenic forest sink estimation, related to the representation of environmental change impacts and the areas considered as managed. For a more credible tracking of collective progress under the Global stocktake, these conceptual differences between models and inventories need to be reconciled. We implement a new method of disaggregation of global land model results that allows greater comparability with GHG inventories. This provides a deeper understanding of model-inventory differences, allowing more transparent analysis of forest-based mitigation and facilitating a more accurate Global stocktake.