Dynamic analysis of the global metals flows and stocks in electricity generation technologies
Dynamic analysis of the global metals flows and stocks in electricity generation technologies
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jclepro.2013.07.003
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发表时间：
2013-11-15
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Graedel, T. E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Elshkaki, Ayman;Graedel, T. E.
近年来，对能源的需求以及由此产生的能源生产排放量一直在迅速增加，导致迫切需要更清洁的技术。然而，清洁技术需要稀缺的资源。本文采用多级动态物质流模型，分析了发电技术的未来发展及其部件所需的金属。该模型包括十种发电技术和决定其金属需求动态的最重要因素。该分析从1980年到2050年进行，使用两种情景，称为市场第一和政策第一，结合技术的具体情景。结果表明，在这两种情况下，在生产能力或风力发电技术的资源可用性方面都没有资源问题。相比之下，在政策第一情景中，每种光伏太阳能技术都具有受限的金属供应：银用于硅基技术，碲用于碲化镉技术，铟用于铜铟镓二硒化物，锗用于非晶硅。模型结果表明，就资源可用性和生产能力而言，最关键的光伏太阳能金属是碲。发电技术所需的铝、铜、铬、镍、铅和铁等贱金属的需求可以在这两种情况下得到满足。(C)2013爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
The demand for energy and consequently the emissions from energy generation have been increasing in recent years at rapid rates, leading to an urgent need for cleaner technologies. Cleaner technologies, however, require scarce resources. This paper analyzes the future development of electricity generation technologies and the metals required for their components, using a multi level dynamic material flow model. The model includes ten electricity generation technologies and the most important factors determining the dynamics of their metals requirement. The analysis is carried out from 1980 through 2050, using two scenarios, termed Market First and Policy First, combined with specific scenarios for the technologies. The results show that no resource problems occur in production capacity or in the availability of resources for wind power technologies in either scenario. In contrast, each photovoltaic solar technology has a constraining metal supply in the Policy First scenario: silver for silicon based technologies, tellurium for cadmium telluride technology, indium for copper indium gallium diselenide, and germanium for amorphous silicon. The model results show that the most critical photovoltaic solar metal in terms of resource availability and production capacity is tellurium. The demand for the base metals aluminium, copper, chromium, nickel, lead, and iron needed for electricity generation technologies can be met in the two scenarios. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.