Disease-dependent interaction policies to support health and economic outcomes during the COVID-19 epidemic.
Disease-dependent interaction policies to support health and economic outcomes during the COVID-19 epidemic.
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在 COVID-19 流行期间支持健康和经济成果的疾病相关互动政策。
DOI：
10.1101/2020.08.24.20180752
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Weitz,JoshuaS
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Li,Guanlin;Shivam,Shashwat;Hochberg,MichaelE;Wardi,Yorai;Weitz,JoshuaS
封锁和居家令在一定程度上缓解了新型冠状病毒的传播。然而，大规模煽动带来了巨大的社会经济代价。在本文中，我们展示了基于疾病状况的个性化政策如何降低传播风险，同时最大限度地减少对经济结果的影响。我们设计的反馈控制策略通知的最优控制解决方案，以调节基于流行病状态的个人的相互作用率。我们确定个性化的互动率，使恢复/免疫个体提高他们的相互作用和易感个体留在家里之前，返回到锁定前的水平。正如我们所示，反馈控制政策可以产生类似的人口范围内的感染率完全关闭，但显着降低经济成本和更大的鲁棒性的不确定性相比，最优控制政策。我们的分析表明，测试驱动的传染性个体隔离效率的提高可以为疾病依赖的相互作用政策提供信息，这些政策可以减轻传播，同时促进个体恢复大流行前的经济活动。
Lockdowns and stay-at-home orders have partially mitigated the spread of Covid-19. However, enmassemitigation has come with substantial socioeconomic costs. In this paper, we demonstrate how individualized policies based on disease status can reduce transmission risk while minimizing impacts on economic outcomes. We design feedback control policies informed by optimal control solutions to modulate interaction rates of individuals based on the epidemic state. We identify personalized interaction rates such that recovered/immune individuals elevate their interactions and susceptible individuals remain at home before returning to pre-lockdown levels. As we show, feedback control policies can yield similar population-wide infection rates to total shutdown but with significantly lower economic costs and with greater robustness to uncertainty compared to optimal control policies. Our analysis shows that test-driven improvements in isolation efficiency of infectious individuals can inform disease-dependent interaction policies that mitigate transmission while enhancing the return of individuals to pre-pandemic economic activity.