Optimal Skin-to-Stone Distance Is a Positive Predictor for Successful Outcomes in Upper Ureter Calculi following Extracorporeal Shock Wave Lithotripsy: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach
Optimal Skin-to-Stone Distance Is a Positive Predictor for Successful Outcomes in Upper Ureter Calculi following Extracorporeal Shock Wave Lithotripsy: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach
复制标题
DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0144912
复制
发表时间：
2015-12-14
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Lee, Joo Yong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cho, Kang Su;Do Jung, Hae;Lee, Joo Yong
ObjectivesTo investigate skin-to-stone distance（SSD），which remains controversial in patients with upper ureterstones.Patients and MethodsWe retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 1，519 patients who carried their first ESWL between January 2005 and December 2013.在这些患者中，492例输尿管上段结石的测量值为4-20 mm，符合我们的分析。通过治疗前的非对比计算机断层扫描（NCCT）确定最大结石长度、平均结石密度（HU）和SSD。对于亚组分析，将患者分为四组。第1组由SSD= 75百分位数的患者组成。ResultsIn组2患者与其他人的分析，平均年龄，结石长度和密度没有统计学差异。然而，第2组的一次治疗成功率高于其他组（77.9% vs. 67.0%; P = 0.032）。多因素Logistic回归模型显示，较短的结石长度、较低的结石密度和第2组SSD是ESWL成功结局的积极预测因素。使用贝叶斯模型平均的方法，较长的结石长度，较低的结石密度，和组2 SSD也可以是积极的预测因素，成功的结果后ESWL.ConclusionsOur数据表明，组2 SSD约10厘米是一个积极的预测因素，成功后ESWL。
ObjectivesTo investigate whether skin-to-stone distance (SSD), which remains controversial in patients with ureter stones, can be a predicting factor for one session success following extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy (ESWL) in patients with upper ureter stones.Patients and MethodsWe retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 1,519 patients who underwent their first ESWL between January 2005 and December 2013. Among these patients, 492 had upper ureter stones that measured 4-20 mm and were eligible for our analyses. Maximal stone length, mean stone density (HU), and SSD were determined on pretreatment non-contrast computed tomography (NCCT). For subgroup analyses, patients were divided into four groups. Group 1 consisted of patients with SSD= 75th percentile.ResultsIn analyses of group 2 patients versus others, there were no statistical differences in mean age, stone length and density. However, the one session success rate in group 2 was higher than other groups (77.9% vs. 67.0%; P = 0.032). The multivariate logistic regression model revealed that shorter stone length, lower stone density, and the group 2 SSD were positive predictors for successful outcomes in ESWL. Using the Bayesian model-averaging approach, longer stone length, lower stone density, and group 2 SSD can be also positive predictors for successful outcomes following ESWL.ConclusionsOur data indicate that a group 2 SSD of approximately 10 cm is a positive predictor for success following ESWL.