Referendums as Critical Junctures? Scottish Voting in British Elections
Referendums as Critical Junctures? Scottish Voting in British Elections
复制标题
公投是关键时刻吗？
DOI：
10.1093/pa/gsx065
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
1.2
通讯作者：
Henderson A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Henderson A
这是苏格兰政坛的一段动荡时期。自2014年5月以来，选民已经去了七次投票站，其中两次是在带来翻天覆地变化的宪法公投中。虽然苏格兰人在2014年投票支持留在英国，并在2016年投票支持留在欧洲，但第二次独立公投的前景依然存在，似乎苏格兰将与英国其他地区一起脱离欧盟。2014年多数人拒绝的变化可能会发生，而只有少数人希望在2016年实现的变化似乎是肯定的。2015年威斯敏斯特选举中，苏格兰民族党(SNP)的支持率大幅上升，标志着工党在苏格兰议员中的主导地位结束，苏格兰民族党终于复制了其在苏格兰选举政治中的地位，这在2007年的Holyrood选举中可见一斑。本章探讨了苏格兰和英国脱欧公投对2017年苏格兰威斯敏斯特选举的影响。它考虑了关于多层次政治中选举的文献，并评估了政党、领导人和关键时刻各自的重要性，以解释2017年英国苏格兰大选结果。使用2014-2015年苏格兰公投研究和2016-2017年苏格兰选举研究数据，我们评估了这两次公投是苏格兰选举政治的关键节点的说法。来自苏格兰选举研究的证据表明，苏格兰议会选举对一部分苏格兰选民来说是头等大事(Carman等人，2014，第108-111页；Henderson和McEwen，2010；Henderson和McEwen，2015)。由于2014年的独立公投，苏格兰问题变得更加突出，那次公投的投票率为85%，而且是一场非常漫长和激烈的竞选活动。这影响到了2015年5月举行的英国大选，当时的投票率为71.1%，比上次选举高出7个百分点。即使是那些可能认为权力下放无关紧要的人也没有对公投不屑一顾。Holyrood各党派的领导人
It has been a turbulent time in Scottish politics. Voters have been to the polls seven times since May 2014, twice in constitutional referendums that offered seismic change. While Scots voted to Remain in the UK in 2014 and voted to stay in Europe in 2016, the prospect of a second independence referendum remains and it appears that Scotland will leave the EU with the rest of the UK. The change a majority rejected in 2014 might yet occur, and the change only a minority wanted in 2016 appears guaranteed. The 2015 Westminster election saw a dramatic increase in Scottish National Party (SNP) support, marking the end of Labour dominance among Scottish MPs, with the SNP finally replicating its status in Scottish electoral politics evident in Holyrood elections since 2007. This chapter explores the impact of the Scottish and Brexit referendum votes upon the 2017 Westminster election in Scotland. It considers the literature on elections in multi-level polities and assesses the respective importance of parties, leaders, and critical junctures to explain the 2017 UK General Election result in Scotland. Using data from the 2014-2015 Scottish Referendum Study and the 2016-2017 Scottish Election Study, we evaluate the claim that the two referendums have served as critical junctures in Scottish electoral politics. Evidence from Scottish election studies suggest that elections to the Scottish Parliament are first order for a section of the Scottish electorate (Carman et al., 2014, pp. 108-111; Henderson and McEwen, 2010; Henderson and McEwen, 2015). There has been a heightened salience of the Scottish Question due to the 2014 independence referendum, which had an 85 per cent turnout and a very long and intense campaign. This spilled over into the UK general election held in May 2015, where turnout, at 71.1%, was seven points higher than in the previous contest. Even those who might have dismissed devolution as an irrelevance did not dismiss the referendum. Leaders of the parties in Holyrood