Nomogram for predicting the overall survival of patients with inflammatory breast cancer: A SEER-based study
Nomogram for predicting the overall survival of patients with inflammatory breast cancer: A SEER-based study
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DOI：
10.1016/j.breast.2019.05.015
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发表时间：
2019-10-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Li, Hui
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Pan, Xingxi;Yang, Wen;Li, Hui
目的：炎性乳腺癌（IBC）是一种罕见的恶性肿瘤，是乳腺癌的一种独特的生物学亚型。目前缺乏预测 IBC 患者总生存期 (OS) 的列线图。本研究的目的是根据监测、流行病学和最终结果 (SEER) 计划构建并验证列线图来预测 IBC 患者的 OS。方法：从 SEER 数据库中选择 2010 年至 2016 年间诊断为 IBC 的患者。使用单变量和多变量 Cox 回归分析来确定独立的预后因素。构建列线图来预测这些患者的 1 年、3 年和 5 年 OS。列线图通过 Harrell 的 C 指数和校准图进行内部和外部验证。结果：患者被随机分为训练集 (n = 2464) 和验证集 (n = 1052)。训练集用于建立列线图。多变量分析发现，种族、诊断时年龄、乳腺癌亚型、分级、N 分期、M 分期、放疗、化疗和手术是 OS 的重要预后因素。内部和外部验证的 Harrell C 指数分别为 0.763 和 0.786。 1 年、3 年和 5 年 OS 预测的校准图非常一致。结论：基于 SEER 数据库构建列线图来预测 IBC 患者的 OS，并提供准确且个性化的生存预测。 (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. 保留所有权利。
Objectives: Inflammatory breast cancer (IBC) is a rare malignancy that is a unique biologic subtype of breast cancer. A nomogram to predict the overall survival (OS) of IBC patients is lacking. The aim of the study was to construct and validate a nomogram to predict the OS of IBC patients based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program.Methods: Patients diagnosed with IBC between 2010 and 2016 were selected from the SEER database. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to identify independent prognostic factors. A nomogram was constructed to predict the 1-, 3- and 5-year OS of these patients. The nomogram was internally and externally validated by Harrell's C-indexes and calibration plots.Results: Patients were randomly divided into a training set (n = 2464) and a validation set (n = 1052). The training set was used to establish a nomogram. Multivariate analysis identified that race, age at diagnosis, breast cancer subtype, grade, N stage, M stage, radiation, chemotherapy, and surgery were significant prognostic factors for the OS. The internally and externally validated Harrell's C-indexes were 0.763 and 0.786, respectively. The calibration plots for predictions of the 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS were in excellent agreement.Conclusions: A nomogram was constructed to predict the OS for IBC patients based on the SEER database and to provide accurate and individualised survival predictions. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.