Filling the Eastern European gap in millennium-long temperature reconstructions
Filling the Eastern European gap in millennium-long temperature reconstructions
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1211485110
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发表时间：
2013-01-29
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Kyncl, Josef
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Buentgen, Ulf;Kyncl, Tomas;Kyncl, Josef
基于树轮的温度重建构成了当前全球变化辩论的科学支柱。尽管一些欧洲记录可以追溯到中世纪，但欧洲大陆东部地区缺乏高分辨率、长期的区域尺度古气候证据。在这里，我们收集了来自大塔特拉地区的545个活的树木和历史木材的样本，以重建东欧5月至6月至公元1040年的年际至百年长的变化。最近的人为变暖超出了过去自然气候变化的范围。鼠疫暴发和政治冲突增加，定居点活动减少，恰逢气温下降。14世纪中期的黑死病，17世纪初的三十年战争，19世纪初法国入侵俄罗斯，都发生在上个千年最寒冷的时期。与斯堪的纳维亚半岛、阿尔卑斯山和比利牛斯山夏季温度重建的比较，强调了我们结果的季节性和空间特殊性，质疑那些简单地平均单个地点的大规模重建。
Tree ring based temperature reconstructions form the scientific backbone of the current global change debate. Although some European records extend into medieval times, high-resolution, long-term, regional-scale paleoclimatic evidence is missing for the eastern part of the continent. Here we compile 545 samples of living trees and historical timbers from the greater Tatra region to reconstruct interannual to centennial-long variations in Eastern European May June temperature back to 1040 AD. Recent anthropogenic warming exceeds the range of past natural climate variability. Increased plague outbreaks and political conflicts, as well as decreased settlement activities, coincided with temperature depressions. The Black Death in the mid-14th century, the Thirty Years War in the early 17th century, and the French Invasion of Russia in the early 19th century all occurred during the coldest episodes of the last millennium. A comparison with summer temperature reconstructions from Scandinavia, the Alps, and the Pyrenees emphasizes the seasonal and spatial specificity of our results, questioning those large-scale reconstructions that simply average individual sites.