A reexamination of false-positive rates for carcinogenesis studies.
A reexamination of false-positive rates for carcinogenesis studies.
复制标题
重新审视致癌研究的假阳性率。
DOI：
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发表时间：
1983
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. Haseman
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Haseman
检查了国家癌症研究所/国家毒理学计划（NCI/NTP）两年致癌生物测定中的假阳性率。以前的研究报告高（20-50%）的假阳性率，这些生物测定进行了审查。许多早期研究中使用的决策规则与NCI/NTP在解释生物测定数据时实际采用的程序大不相同。从25个最近的NTP喂养研究的数据进行检查，观察到的肿瘤增加的统计学意义进行比较，与最终的解释有关的化学物质的致癌作用的研究。在此基础上，制定了一个更现实的决策程序。结果表明，在一个统计决策规则，似乎更接近模仿科学判断过程的假设下，在NCI/NTP生物测定的实际总体假阳性率似乎不超过7%至8%。
False-positive rates in the National Cancer Institute/National Toxicology Program (NCI/NTP) two-year carcinogenesis bioassay are examined. Previous studies that have reported high (20-50%) false-positive rates for these bioassays are reviewed. The decision rules used in many of these earlier investigations are far different than the procedures actually employed by the NCI/NTP in the interpretation of bioassay data. Data from 25 recent NTP feeding studies are examined, and the statistical significance of observed tumor increases are compared with the final interpretations regarding the carcinogenic effects of the chemicals under study. Based on this examination, a more realistic decision procedure is formulated. It is shown that under the assumption of a statistical decision rule which appears to mimic more closely the scientific judgment process, the actual overall false-positive rate in NCI/NTP bioassays appears to be no greater than 7% to 8%.