Assessing Future Coastline Change in the Vicinity of Tidal Inlets via Reduced Complexity Modelling
Assessing Future Coastline Change in the Vicinity of Tidal Inlets via Reduced Complexity Modelling
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DOI：
10.2112/si85-128.1
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发表时间：
2018-05-01
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Udo, Keiko
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bamunawala, Janaka;Ranasinghe, Roshanka;Udo, Keiko
入潮口附近海岸线变化主要受四个过程的影响；布鲁恩效应、海平面上升导致盆地填充、河流流量变化和河流沉积，这些都是由气候变化和人类活动驱动的。然而，一直缺乏解释气候变化和人为影响下所有上述过程的海岸线变化模型。这里提出的方法在评估两种不同类型的潮汐入口附近未来潜在的海岸线变化时考虑了气候变化和人为强迫。应用该方法表明，到 2100 年，卡卢特勒湾（斯里兰卡）的海岸线将进退 20 席，阿尔西河口（美国）的海岸线将退缩 30 席。仔细研究这些预测的海岸线变化的相对贡献表明，人为影响可能决定河流沉积物对海岸的供应，强调了在评估沿入口中断的海岸线的未来海岸线变化时，综合气候变化和人为影响的重要性。
Coastline change in the vicinity of tidal inlets is mainly influenced by four processes; the Bruun effect, sea level rise driven basin infilling, variations in river discharge and fluvial sedimentation, which are driven by both climate change and anthropogenic activities. However, a coastline change model that accounts for all of the aforementioned processes under both climate change and anthropogenic influences has been lacking. The methodology presented here accounts for climate change and anthropogenic forcing in assessing potential future coastline change in the vicinity of two different types of tidal inlets. Application of this method indicates a coastline progradation of 20 mat Kalutara inlet (Sri Lanka) and a coastline recession of 30 mat Alsea estuary (USA) by 2100. Scrutinizing the relative contributions to these predicted coastline changes illustrates that anthropogenic influences could dictate fluvial sediment supply to coasts, underlining the significance of integrating both climate change and anthropogenic influences when assessing future coastline change along inlet-interrupted coastlines.