WHAT EXPLAINS THE 2007-2009 DROP IN EMPLOYMENT?
WHAT EXPLAINS THE 2007-2009 DROP IN EMPLOYMENT?
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DOI：
10.3982/ecta10451
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发表时间：
2014-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6.1
通讯作者：
Sufi, Amir
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mian, Atif;Sufi, Amir
我们发现，家庭资产负债表的恶化，或住房净值渠道，在2007年至2009年美国就业急剧下降中发挥了重要作用。住房净值下降幅度较大的县，非贸易性就业的下降幅度也较大。这一结果并非由特定行业的供应方冲击、建筑业风险敞口、政策引发的商业不确定性或同期信贷供应收紧所驱动。我们发现，几乎没有证据表明，劳动力市场的调整，以应对住房净值冲击。在住房净值下降幅度最大的县，可交易部门没有显著扩张。此外，几乎没有证据表明受影响最严重的县内进行了工资调整或向外移民。
We show that deterioration in household balance sheets, or the housing net worth channel, played a significant role in the sharp decline in U.S. employment between 2007 and 2009. Counties with a larger decline in housing net worth experience a larger decline in non-tradable employment. This result is not driven by industry-specific supply-side shocks, exposure to the construction sector, policy-induced business uncertainty, or contemporaneous credit supply tightening. We find little evidence of labor market adjustment in response to the housing net worth shock. There is no significant expansion of the tradable sector in counties with the largest decline in housing net worth. Further, there is little evidence of wage adjustment within or emigration out of the hardest hit counties.