Broad scale quantified flood risk analysis in the T aihu B asin, C hina
Broad scale quantified flood risk analysis in the T aihu B asin, C hina
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中国太湖流域大尺度洪水风险量化分析
DOI：
10.1111/jfr3.12027
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发表时间：
2013
影响因子：
4.1
通讯作者：
Yu C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yu C
开发了基于地理信息系统（GIS）的分析工具——太湖流域风险评估系统（TBRAS），对太湖流域未来洪水风险变化进行情景分析。TBRAS集成了气候模型、水文和水力模型、堤坝可靠性分析、社会经济分析和损害评估等模块。结果表明，TBRAS可以为整个太湖流域提供大尺度的洪水过程模拟和灾害评估。到2050年，仅在降水方面的未来气候变化就可能导致与2005年基线风险相比，风险增加大约四到五倍。仅社会经济变化就会使洪水风险增加4到6倍。研究表明，如果没有任何积极的应对措施，社会经济变化、海平面上升和其他气候变化的共同作用将使总体洪水风险大幅增加到目前的15-37倍。因此，我们得出结论，减少洪水风险的结构性和非结构性措施都是必要的，并为管理和适应未来的洪水风险变化提供了一套响应方案。
A geographic information system (GIS)‐based analysis tool, the Taihu Basin Risk Assessment System (TBRAS), is developed to perform scenario analysis of future flood risk changes in the Taihu Basin. The TBRAS integrates modules of climate modelling, hydrological and hydraulic modelling, dyke reliability analysis, socioeconomic analysis, and damage assessment. The results indicate that the TBRAS can provide a broad‐scale simulation of the flooding processes and damage evaluation for the entire Taihu Basin. Future climate change by 2050 in precipitation alone can approximately result in four or five times of risk increase compared with the 2005 baseline risk. Socioeconomic changes alone can increase flood risk by four to six times. The paper reveals that, without any proactive responses, the combination of socioeconomic change, sea‐level rise, and other climate changes can substantially increase the overall flood risks to 15–37 times of the present situation. We therefore conclude that both structural and non‐structural measures for reducing flood risks are required and provide a set of response options for managing and adapting future flood risk changes.