Modelling space-time HIV/AIDS dynamics: Applications to disease control
Modelling space-time HIV/AIDS dynamics: Applications to disease control
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DOI：
10.1016/0277-9536(95)00396-7
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发表时间：
1996-08-01
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Thomas, R
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Thomas, R
本文将一类HIV/AIDS模型的输出应用于疾病控制问题。流行病模型，包括该套件包括单和多区域表示，每个采用一个或两个风险人口格式。在这里，风险是用活动率来表示的，低风险的特征是繁殖率小于1，这定义了一种无法开始的模拟流行病。这些模型被应用于预防和控制中的以下问题：第一，估计人口增长率的国家差异对流行病预测规模的影响，第二，构建控制图以评估预期干预措施的影响，第三，评估针对高危人群的预防行动的后果;最后，评估血清学途径和模拟大流行途径之间差异对国际控制的影响。讨论将这些发现置于制定卫生政策的背景下。版权所有（C）1996 Elsevier Science Ltd
This paper applies the outputs of a family of HIV/AIDS models to problems in disease control. The epidemic models comprising this suite include single and multiregion representations each adopting either a one or two risk population format. Here, risk is expressed in terms of activity rates and those at low risk are characterized by a reproduction rate of less than unity which defines a simulated epidemic that cannot start. These models are applied to the following problems in prevention and control: first, estimating the impact of national variations in population growth rates on the predicted size of the epidemic, second, constructing control charts to assess the impact of intended interventions, third, evaluating the consequences of targeting preventative action at those at high risk; and last, evaluating the implications for international control of differences between the serological and simulated pandemic pathways. The discussion sets these findings within the context of forming health policy. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd