Asking about Social Circles Improves Election Predictions Even with Many Political Parties
Asking about Social Circles Improves Election Predictions Even with Many Political Parties
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DOI：
10.1093/ijpor/edac006
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发表时间：
2022-02-16
影响因子：
1.8
通讯作者：
van Soest, Arthur
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bruine de Bruin, Wandi;Galesic, Mirta;van Soest, Arthur
传统上，选举民意调查要求参与者自己的投票意向。在四次选举中，我们发现我们可以通过询问参与者他们认为他们的社交圈会如何投票来提高预测。一个潜在的担忧是，社交圈问题可能在政治选择数量较多的选举中预测结果的效果较差，因为准确跟踪社交联系人计划如何投票变得更加困难。然而，我们现在发现，社交圈问题在预测两次有许多政党的选举时表现得更好：荷兰2017年大选和瑞典2018年大选。
Traditionally, election polls have asked for participants' own voting intentions. In four elections, we previously found that we could improve predictions by asking participants how they thought their social circles would vote. A potential concern is that the social-circle question might predict results less well in elections with larger numbers of political options because it becomes harder to accurately track how social contacts plan to vote. However, we now find that the social-circle question performs better than the own-intention question in predicting two elections with many political parties: The Netherlands' 2017 general election and the Swedish 2018 general election.