Future flood losses in major coastal cities
Future flood losses in major coastal cities
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate1979
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发表时间：
2013-09-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Corfee-Morlot, Jan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hallegatte, Stephane;Green, Colin;Corfee-Morlot, Jan
由于人口和资产的增长、气候的变化(3)和地面沉降（4-6），沿海城市的洪水暴露正在增加（1,2）。在这里，我们对136个最大的沿海城市现在和未来的洪水损失进行了量化。利用新的城市保护数据库和不同的适应假设，我们考虑了现有和未来的防洪措施。2005年全球平均洪水损失估计约为每年60亿美元，到2050年仅考虑预计的社会经济变化就将增加到520亿美元。随着气候变化和地面沉降，现有的保护措施需要升级，以避免每年1万亿美元或更多的不可接受的损失。即使适应性投资维持恒定的洪水概率，到2050年，地表沉降和海平面上升将使全球洪水损失增加到每年600 - 630亿美元。为了维持目前的洪水风险，适应需要将洪水概率降低到当前值以下。在这种情况下，当洪水发生时，损失的规模将增加，通常超过50%，因此为比我们今天所经历的更大的灾害做好准备就变得至关重要。该分析确定了似乎最容易受到这些趋势影响的城市，也就是说，预计损失增幅最大的城市。
Flood exposure is increasing in coastal cities(1,2) owing to growing populations and assets, the changing climate(3), and subsidence(4-6). Here we provide a quantification of present and future flood losses in the 136 largest coastal cities. Using a new database of urban protection and different assumptions on adaptation, we account for existing and future flood defences. Average global flood losses in 2005 are estimated to be approximately US$6 billion per year, increasing to US$52 billion by 2050 with projected socio-economic change alone. With climate change and subsidence, present protection will need to be upgraded to avoid unacceptable losses of US$1 trillion or more per year. Even if adaptation investments maintain constant flood probability, subsidence and sea-level rise will increase global flood losses to US$60-63 billion per year in 2050. To maintain present flood risk, adaptation will need to reduce flood probabilities below present values. In this case, the magnitude of losses when floods do occur would increase, often by more than 50%, making it critical to also prepare for larger disasters than we experience today. The analysis identifies the cities that seem most vulnerable to these trends, that is, where the largest increase in losses can be expected.