A reversal in global terrestrial stilling and its implications for wind energy production
A reversal in global terrestrial stilling and its implications for wind energy production
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DOI：
10.1038/s41558-019-0622-6
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发表时间：
2019-12-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Wood, Eric F.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zeng, Zhenzhong;Ziegler, Alan D.;Wood, Eric F.
风力发电作为一种快速增长的替代能源，一直受到全球平均地面风速下降的威胁。自20世纪80年代以来，全球平均地面风速一直在陆地上出现，这种现象被称为全球陆地静止。在这里，我们使用来自世界各地现场观测站的风数据来表明，在2010年左右，静止的情况发生了逆转，陆地上的全球风速已经恢复。我们指出，近地表风的年代际变化可能是由内部的年代际海气振荡决定的，而不是像以前假设的那样由植被生长和/或城市化决定。从2010年到2017年，风力发电能力的增强使潜在风能增加了17%+/-2%，使美国风电装机容量系数提高了约2.5%，并解释了自2010年以来美国风电装机容量系数增长的一半。从长远来看，利用海洋-大气振荡来预测未来的风速，可以使涡轮机在其生产寿命期间根据预期的速度进行优化。
Wind power, a rapidly growing alternative energy source, has been threatened by reductions in global average surface wind speed, which have been occurring over land since the 1980s, a phenomenon known as global terrestrial stilling. Here, we use wind data from in situ stations worldwide to show that the stilling reversed around 2010 and that global wind speeds over land have recovered. We illustrate that decadal-scale variations of near-surface wind are probably determined by internal decadal ocean-atmosphere oscillations, rather than by vegetation growth and/or urbanization as hypothesized previously. The strengthening has increased potential wind energy by 17 +/- 2% for 2010 to 2017, boosting the US wind power capacity factor by similar to 2.5% and explains half the increase in the US wind capacity factor since 2010. In the longer term, the use of ocean-atmosphere oscillations to anticipate future wind speeds could allow optimization of turbines for expected speeds during their productive life spans.