Short and Long-Run Effects of Productivity on Unemployment
Short and Long-Run Effects of Productivity on Unemployment
复制标题
生产力对失业的短期和长期影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Pu Chen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
W. Semmler;Pu Chen
奥肯(1962)的开创性论文是关于经济增长和失业的重要研究，但关于生产率增长对失业率影响的详细探索被搁置一边。然而，生产率增长和失业率之间的关系长期以来一直备受争议。在这篇文章中，我们提出了短期和长期生产率增长和失业率之间联系的风格化事实，并提供了各种模型变量，证明在短期内生产率增长可能对就业产生负面影响--甚至可能增加失业率--而从长期来看，生产率增长和就业之间的关系可能是正向变化的。利用美国的数据，我们将失业率和生产率增长的时间序列分解为长期和短期成分，并展示了经验证据，表明长期和短期成分如一些理论预测的那样存在协同变化。
Okun’s (1962) seminal paper is an important study on economic growth and unemployment but a detailed exploration of the effect of productivity growth on unemployment has been left aside. Yet, the relationship between productivity growth and unemployment has been debated since long. In this paper we present stylized facts on the link between productivity growth and unemployment for the short and long run, and present model variants that demonstrate that in the short run productivity growth can have a negative effect on employment – or may even increase unemployment – while in the long run the relationship between productivity growth and employment are likely to co-vary positively. Using US data, empirically we decompose the time series of unemployment rate and productivity growth into long run and short run components and show empirical evidence that the long run and short run components co-vary as predicted by some theories.