Development towards low carbon and sustainable agriculture in Finland is possible with moderate changes in land use and diets
Development towards low carbon and sustainable agriculture in Finland is possible with moderate changes in land use and diets
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s11625-022-01244-6
复制
发表时间：
2022-11-06
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
Ramo，Janne
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lehtonen，Heikki;Ramo，Janne
气候变化下的粮食安全、几个可持续性问题以及雄心勃勃的气候目标被认为是许多国家农业和食品部门面临的挑战。从农业生产和土地利用两个方面来看，农业生产和土地利用都得到了很大提高。20%的温室气体(GHG)排放量，减少农业温室气体排放对实现2035年前国家气候中性目标非常重要。为了更可持续的粮食经济，还需要更健康的食物饮食、维持生物多样性和减少农业养分的流失。本文旨在展示传统上以畜牧业为主的芬兰农业如何显著减少温室气体排放，同时应对其他可持续发展问题。我们基于农业部门经济模型的结果表明，如果生产率增长和政策变化支持农业和食品部门的整体变化，那么到2050年，适度改变食物饮食和土地使用可以将农业的温室气体排放减少40%以上。适应气候变化，例如更高的作物产量和有效的投入利用，对于生产力增长是必要的。减少对肉类的需求和减少饲料作物的种植将减少温室气体排放，并通过植树造林为固碳腾出土地。虽然更健康的食物饮食意味着更少的牲畜和更多用于食物的蛋白质作物的进口，但合理的畜牧业产量对于维持粮食安全、草原、作物轮作、土壤碳和生物多样性是有用的。我们的结论是，向低碳和更可持续的农业过渡是可能的，而不会危及北纬地区的粮食安全。
Food security under climate change, several sustainability problems, and ambitious climate targets are considered challenges for agriculture and food sectors in many countries. Since agricultural production and its land use produce appr. 20% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of Finland, reducing agricultural GHG emissions is important for meeting national target of climate neutrality by 2035. Healthier food diets, maintenance of biodiversity, and reduced nutrient leaching from agriculture are also required for a more sustainable food economy. This paper aims to show how agriculture in Finland, traditionally dominated by livestock production, could decrease GHG emissions significantly and simultaneously respond to other sustainability concerns. Our results, based on economic modelling of the agricultural sector, suggest that moderate changes in food diets and land use can reduce GHG emissions of agriculture by more than 40% by 2050 if productivity growth and policy changes support the overall change in the agriculture and food sector. Adaptation to climate change, e.g. more higher crop yields efficient input use, is necessary for productivity growth. Decreased demand for meat and decreased cultivation of feed crops would decrease GHG emissions and free up land for carbon sequestration through afforestation. Whilst healthier food diets imply less livestock and increased imports of protein crops for food, a reasonable volume of livestock production is useful for maintaining food security, grasslands, crop rotations, soil carbon, and biodiversity. We conclude that transition to low carbon and more sustainable agriculture is possible without risking food security at northern latitudes.