Confidence intervals for a random-effects meta-analysis based on Bartlett-type corrections
Confidence intervals for a random-effects meta-analysis based on Bartlett-type corrections
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DOI：
10.1002/sim.4350
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发表时间：
2011-12-10
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Noma, Hisashi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Noma, Hisashi
在医学荟萃分析中，实际中广泛采用了平均治疗效果的dersimonan - laird置信区间。然而，众所周知，它的覆盖概率（间隔实际包含真实值的概率）可能大大低于目标水平。一个特别的原因是置信区间的有效性取决于综合研究的数量足够大的假设。在典型的医学荟萃分析中，研究的数量少于20个。在本文中，我们基于(i) Bartlett校正似然比统计量，（ii）有效得分统计量和（iii） Bartlett型调整有效得分统计量，开发了三个置信区间来改善覆盖率属性。Bartlett和Bartlett型校正改进了似然比和有效分数统计的大样本近似值。通过模拟数值评价，这些置信区间比现有方法具有更好的覆盖性能。特别是，在中等数量的合成研究中，Bartlett和Bartlett型校正置信区间表现良好。应用于治疗心肌梗死与静脉注射镁的荟萃分析提出。版权所有：John Wiley & Sons， Ltd。
In medical meta-analysis, the DerSimonian-Laird confidence interval for the average treatment effect has been widely adopted in practice. However, it is well known that its coverage probability (the probability that the interval actually includes the true value) can be substantially below the target level. One particular reason is that the validity of the confidence interval depends on the assumption that the number of synthesized studies is sufficiently large. In typical medical meta-analyses, the number of studies is fewer than 20. In this article, we developed three confidence intervals for improving coverage properties, based on (i) the Bartlett corrected likelihood ratio statistic, (ii) the efficient score statistic, and (iii) the Bartlett-type adjusted efficient score statistic. The Bartlett and Bartlett-type corrections improve the large sample approximations for the likelihood ratio and efficient score statistics. Through numerical evaluations by simulations, these confidence intervals demonstrated better coverage properties than the existing methods. In particular, with a moderate number of synthesized studies, the Bartlett and Bartlett-type corrected confidence intervals performed well. An application to a metaanalysis of the treatment for myocardial infarction with intravenous magnesium is presented. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.