Climatic variables and malaria transmission dynamics in Jimma town, South West Ethiopia
Climatic variables and malaria transmission dynamics in Jimma town, South West Ethiopia
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DOI：
10.1186/1756-3305-4-30
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发表时间：
2011-03-02
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Golassa, Lemu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Alemu, Abebe;Abebe, Gemeda;Golassa, Lemu
背景：--在埃塞俄比亚，疟疾是季节性和不稳定的，导致频繁流行。它通常发生在海拔2,000米的地方。偶尔，疟疾传播发生在以前没有疟疾的地区，包括海拔2000米的地区。对于疟疾寄生虫的传播，气候因素是重要的决定因素，也是可以抵消气候影响的非气候因素。事实上，在埃塞俄比亚，特别是在研究地区，缺乏关于气候变异性和疟疾传播风险之间的相关性的信息。因此，本研究的目的是确定气象变量与疟疾病例之间的相关性水平。方法：利用埃塞俄比亚西南部吉马镇2000-2009年的月气象变量和月疟疾总量数据进行时间序列分析。所有数据用SPSS-15数据库程序录入和分析。用Spearman相关分析和线性回归分析评价变量间的关联性。结果：近10年(2000-2009年)间，疟疾传播呈波动趋势，间日疟原虫成为优势种群。Spearman相关分析表明，月最低气温、总降雨量和两项相对湿度与疟疾发病呈正相关，月最高气温与疟疾发病呈负相关。回归分析还表明，月最低气温(p=0.008)、月最高气温(p=0.013)和月总降雨量(p=0.040)在1个月滞后效应下是影响疟疾传播的显著气象因素。未来，需要由寄生虫学、流行病学、植物学、农业和气候学等领域的研究人员参与的前瞻性和多学科合作研究，以确定气象因素对疟疾等媒介传播疾病的真正影响。
Background:-: In Ethiopia, malaria is seasonal and unstable, causing frequent epidemics. It usually occurs at altitudes < 2,000 m above sea level. Occasionally, transmission of malaria occurs in areas previously free of malaria, including areas > 2,000 m above sea level. For transmission of malaria parasite, climatic factors are important determinants as well as non-climatic factors that can negate climatic influences. Indeed, there is a scarcity of information on the correlation between climatic variability and malaria transmission risk in Ethiopia in general and in the study area in particular. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine the level of correlation between meteorological variables and malaria cases.Methods: -: Time-series analysis was conducted using data on monthly meteorological variables and monthly total malaria in Jimma town, south west Ethiopia, for the period 2000-2009. All the data were entered and analyzed using SPSS-15 database program. Spearman correlation and linear regression analysis were used to asses association between the variables.Results: -: During last ten years (2000-2009), a fluctuating trend of malaria transmission was observed with P. vivax becoming predominant species. Spearman correlation analysis showed that monthly minimum temperature, total rainfall and two measures of relative humidity were positively related with malaria but monthly maximum temperature negatively related. Also regression analysis suggested that monthly minimum (p = 0.008), monthly maximum temperature (p = 0.013) and monthly total rainfall (p = 0.040), at one month lagged effect, were significant meteorological factors for transmission of malaria in the study area.Conclusion: -: Malaria incidences in the last decade seem to have a significant association with meteorological variables. In future, prospective and multidisciplinary cooperative research involving researchers from the fields of parasitology, epidemiology, botany, agriculture and climatology is necessary to identify the real effect of meteorological factors on vector-borne diseases like malaria.