Comparison of Population Aging in Europe and Asia Using a Time-Consistent and Comparative Aging Measure
Comparison of Population Aging in Europe and Asia Using a Time-Consistent and Comparative Aging Measure
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DOI：
10.1177/0898264318824180
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发表时间：
2020-06-01
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
Janssen, Fanny
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Balachandran, Arun;de Beer, Joop;Janssen, Fanny
目的：我们比较欧洲和亚洲的人口老龄化，使用一种既随时间一致又适合跨国比较的措施。方法：Sanderson和Scherbov提出用剩余预期寿命（RLE）等于15岁的年龄来估计老年阈值。我们建议调整这一措施，考虑到达到该年龄的异常性的跨国差异。结果：2012年，中亚、南亚、东南亚和许多东欧国家的老年阈值低于65岁。与RLE15方法相比，这些人群的老年人比例也更高。我们的方法揭示了老年人比例的地域多样性。两种方法在老年阈值和老年人比例上呈现出相似的时间趋势。讨论：我们的前瞻性和比较措施显示，大多数亚洲和东欧国家的人口老龄化估计较高，老龄化更加多样化。
Objective: We compare population aging in Europe and Asia using a measure that is both consistent over time and appropriate for cross-country comparison. Method: Sanderson and Scherbov proposed to estimate the old-age threshold by the age at which the remaining life expectancy (RLE) equals 15 years. We propose an adjustment of this measure, taking into account cross-national differences in the exceptionality of reaching that age. Results: Our old-age threshold was lower than 65 years in 2012 in Central Asia, Southern Asia, Southeastern Asia, and many Eastern European countries. These populations also experienced a higher share of elderly compared with the RLE15 method. Our method revealed more geographical diversity in the shares of elderly. Both methods exhibited similar time trends for the old-age thresholds and the shares of elderly. Discussion: Our prospective and comparative measure reveals higher population aging estimates in most Asian and Eastern European countries and more diversity in aging.