Democracy and Electoral Politics in Zambia
Democracy and Electoral Politics in Zambia
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赞比亚的民主和选举政治
DOI：
10.1163/9789004430440_004
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Banda T
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Banda T
2001年，一个新的反对党--国家发展统一党(UPND)--在赞比亚多党政治竞争的头十年中以微弱劣势输掉了竞争最激烈的选举。在该党主席去世和一场血腥的继承战之后，该党的选举命运急剧下降。在被视为一个“地区性”政党，其选举支持严格限于其选举大本营南方省份之后，几乎没有分析人士预测该党将在2015年壮观地卷土重来。尽管UPND是赞比亚历史最悠久(有效)的政党之一，但它并不是学术调查的主题。虽然学者们从派系斗争、激烈的“第三任期辩论”以及对经济自由化的日益失望等方面分析了2001年紧张的选举，但没有对上党的政策或动员战略进行严格的分析。相比之下，MMD霸权的下一个挑战者迈克尔·萨塔的爱国阵线(PF)的崛起，2011年从MMD手中夺取政权，已经得到了相当深入的报道。学者们聚焦于迈克尔·萨塔(Sishuwa，2016)的个人，他臭名昭著的反华言论(Negi，2008)，以及--最引人注目的--该党采用的民粹主义动员策略(Larmer and Fraser，2007；Nic Cheeseman and Hinfelaar，2010；Resnick，2013；Fraser，2017)。本章将简要介绍该党崛起的历史，然后概述该党令人惊讶地重新成为国家挑战者的原因，以及它是如何在占领州议会大厦的几英寸范围内出现的。它认为，该党利用其两个主要竞争对手MMD和PF中的派系斗争带来的机会，将种族地区权力掮客拉入精英联盟，并通过这样做，允许该党在其传统种族地区据点之外的地区重塑品牌并获得选票。这一战略随后得到了在全国各地开展的具有高度针对性和有效性的竞选活动的支持。这并不一定是说UPND运动吸引了充满活力和坚定的民众支持。相反，该党在2015年和2016年不断增加的选票份额也与崩溃密切相关
In 2001, a new opposition party–the United Party for National Development (upnd)–narrowly lost the most competitive elections held in Zambia’s first decade of multi-party political competition. Following the death of the party’s president and a bruising succession battle, the party’s electoral fortunes then declined drastically. Having come to be seen as a ‘regional’party whose electoral support was strictly confined to its electoral stronghold of Southern Province, few analysts predicted the party’s spectacular resurgence in 2015. Despite the upnd’s existence as one of Zambia’s oldest (effective) political parties, it has not been the subject of academic inquiry. While scholars have analysed the tight election in 2001 in terms of the unpopularity of the ruling Movement for Multiparty Democracy (mmd), resulting from factionalism, the bruising ‘thirdterm debate’and growing disenchantment with economic liberalization, no rigorous analysis was undertaken with regards to the policies or mobilization strategies of the upnd. In contrast, the rise of the next challenger to mmd hegemony, Michael Sata’s Patriotic Front (PF), which took power from the mmd in 2011, has been covered in substantial depth. Scholars have focused on the person of Michael Sata (Sishuwa, 2016), his infamous deployment of anti-Chinese rhetoric (Negi, 2008) and–most notably–the ‘populist’mobilization strategies employed by the party (Larmer and Fraser, 2007; Nic Cheeseman and Hinfelaar, 2010; Resnick, 2013; Fraser, 2017). This chapter will briefly address the history of the upnd before outlining the reasons for the party’s surprising re-emergence as a national challenger, and how it came within inches of occupying State House. It argues that the party used the opportunities presented by factionalism in the mmd and PF, its two main competitors, to pull ethno-regional power brokers into an elite coalition and, in doing so, it allowed the party both to rebrand and to garner votes in regions outside of its traditional ethno-regional strongholds. This strategy was then bolstered by a highly targeted and effective election campaign waged across the country. This is not necessarily to argue that the upnd campaign attracted energetic and committed popular support. Instead, the party’s increasing vote share in 2015 and 2016 is also intimately connected to the collapse