Multinomial Logit Model of Pedestrian Crossing Behaviors at Signalized Intersections
Multinomial Logit Model of Pedestrian Crossing Behaviors at Signalized Intersections
复制标题
信号交叉口行人过路行为的多项 Logit 模型
DOI：
10.1155/2013/172726
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发表时间：
2013-01-01
影响因子：
1.4
通讯作者：
Zhang, Yong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhou, Zhu-Ping;Liu, Ying-Shun;Zhang, Yong
行人碰撞事故是我国道路交通事故中的一个重要组成部分，也是信号交叉口最易发生的交通事故。本文旨在研究不同的行人行为的经常使用者，晚启动，运动鞋，和部分运动鞋。在田间研究中手动观察行为信息。之后，调查小组向被观察的同一名参与者分发了一份问卷，以获得详细的人口统计学和社会经济特征以及态度和偏好指标。在南京市16个信号交叉口共调查了1878名行人。首先，进行相关分析，分析各因素的影响。然后，通过结构方程模型（SEM）得到五个潜变量，包括安全性，一致性，舒适性，灵活性，和牢度。基于结构方程模型的结果，建立了一个包含潜变量的多项logit模型来描述这些因素对行人行为的影响。研究结果表明：（1）对于行人的迟到选择，到达时间、是否有迎面而来的汽车和人行横道长度是最重要的影响因素;（2）性别对行人的迟到选择影响最显著;（3）年龄对行人的迟到选择影响最显著。
Pedestrian crashes, making up a large proportion of road casualties, are more likely to occur at signalized intersections in China. This paper aims to study the different pedestrian behaviors of regular users, late starters, sneakers, and partial sneakers. Behavior information was observed manually in the field study. After that, the survey team distributed a questionnaire to the same participant who has been observed, to acquire detailed demographic and socioeconomic characteristics as well as attitude and preference indicators. Totally, 1878 pedestrians were surveyed at 16 signalized intersections in Nanjing. First, correlation analysis is performed to analyze each factor’s effect. Then, five latent variables including safety, conformity, comfort, flexibility, and fastness are obtained by structure equation modeling (SEM). Moreover, based on the results of SEM, a multinomial logit model with latent variables is developed to describe how the factors influence pedestrians’ behavior. Finally, some conclusions are drawn from the model: (1) for the choice of being late starters, arrival time, the presence of oncoming cars, and crosswalk length are the most important factors; (2) gender has the most significant effect on the pedestrians to be sneakers; and (3) age is the most important factor when pedestrians choose to be partial sneakers.