NAO implicated as a predictor of the surface air temperature multidecadal variability over East Asia
NAO implicated as a predictor of the surface air temperature multidecadal variability over East Asia
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s00382-019-04624-4
复制
发表时间：
2019-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Tiejun Xie;Jianping Li;Cheng Sun;R. Ding;Kaicun Wang;Chuanfeng Zhao;Juan Feng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tiejun Xie;Jianping Li;Cheng Sun;R. Ding;Kaicun Wang;Chuanfeng Zhao;Juan Feng
地表气温是影响人类生活质量的重要因素，也是全球气候变化的重要标志。因此，了解地面气温的数十年变化，并准确预测未来趋势，对经济发展至关重要。在这项工作中，我们探讨了东亚地面气温（EASAT）的多年变化。我们发现，EASAT在1900年至2017年之间表现出强烈的年代际变化。观测分析表明，每年EASAT的年代际变率是高度相关的北大西洋涛动（NAO）和NAO领先的趋势每年EASAT的15-20年。进一步的分析表明，NAO通过对大西洋年代际振荡（AMO）的主导作用，先于年EASAT的年代际变率。AMO通过亚非年代际遥相关（AAMT）模式影响年度EASAT的年代际变率。因此，NAO为基础的线性模型建立预测年度EASAT。该模型能够更好地后报年度EASAT的基础上的不同时期的时间序列。由于NAO多年变化和与人为温室气体排放相关的强迫的共同影响，预计2018-2034年的年度EASAT将保持在目前的水平，甚至略低，随后几十年将出现一段快速变暖的时期。
Surface air temperature is an important factor for human quality of life and is a key marker of global climate change. Understanding multidecadal changes in surface air temperature, and accurately predicting future trends, are therefore important for economic development. In this work, we explore multidecadal variability in East Asian surface air temperature (EASAT). We find that EASAT shows a strong multidecadal variability between 1900 and 2017. Observational analysis shows that annual EASAT multidecadal variability is highly associated with the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) and the NAO leads detrended annual EASAT by 15–20 years. Further analysis illustrates that the NAO precedes annual EASAT multidecadal variability through its leading effect on the Atlantic Multidecadal oscillation (AMO). The AMO influences annual EASAT multidecadal variability through the Africa–Asia multidecadal teleconnection (AAMT) pattern. An NAO-based linear model is therefore established to predict annual EASAT. The model is able to better hindcast annual EASAT based on different periods of the time-series. Due to the joint influences of NAO multidecadal variability and the forcing associated with anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, annual EASAT for 2018–2034 is predicted to remain at its current level or even slightly lower, followed by a period of fast warming over the following decades.