Predicting the Validity of Expert Judgments in Assessing the Impact of Risk Mitigation Through Failure Prevention and Correction.
Predicting the Validity of Expert Judgments in Assessing the Impact of Risk Mitigation Through Failure Prevention and Correction.
复制标题
预测专家判断在评估通过故障预防和纠正降低风险的影响时的有效性。
DOI：
10.1111/risa.13539
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Brito MP
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brito MP
极端环境下自动驾驶汽车的操作风险管理在很大程度上依赖于专家的判断，特别是通过纠正和预防采取故障缓解行动，消除特定故障后果的可能性的判断。然而，现有的研究并没有检验专家在估计故障缓解概率方面的可靠性。对于极端环境下的系统运行，故障缓解的概率被用作故障不再发生概率的代理。利用北极自主水下航行器任务的优先专家判断和发射后的现场数据，我们随后开发了一个广义线性模型，使我们能够研究这种关系。我们发现，单独的故障缓解概率不能作为故障不再发生概率的代理。我们得出的结论是，在估计故障不再发生的概率时，还必须包括实现故障缓解的努力。工作量是指一个人执行执行故障纠正操作所需的任务所花费的时间（以人-月为单位）。我们表明，一旦获得少量的运行数据，就有可能定义一个广义线性逻辑模型来估计故障不再发生的概率。我们讨论了我们的发现对所有自动驾驶汽车操作的重要性，以及类似的操作如何从修改风险缓解的专家判断中受益，以考虑降低关键风险所需的努力。
Operational risk management of autonomous vehicles in extreme environments is heavily dependent on expert judgments and, in particular, judgments of the likelihood that a failure mitigation action, via correction and prevention, will annul the consequences of a specific fault. However, extant research has not examined the reliability of experts in estimating the probability of failure mitigation. For systems operations in extreme environments, the probability of failure mitigation is taken as a proxy of the probability of a fault not reoccurring. Usinga prioriexpert judgments for an autonomous underwater vehicle mission in the Arctic anda posteriorimission field data, we subsequently developed a generalized linear model that enabled us to investigate this relationship. We found that the probability of failure mitigation alone cannot be used as a proxy for the probability of fault not reoccurring. We conclude that it is also essential to include the effort to implement the failure mitigation when estimating the probability of fault not reoccurring. The effort is the time taken by a person (measured in person‐months) to execute the task required to implement the fault correction action. We show that once a modicum of operational data is obtained, it is possible to define a generalized linear logistic model to estimate the probability a fault not reoccurring. We discuss how our findings are important to all autonomous vehicle operations and how similar operations can benefit from revising expert judgments of risk mitigation to take account of the effort required to reduce key risks.