Explaining the size of assemblies. A longitudinal analysis of the design and reform of assembly sizes in democracies around the world
Explaining the size of assemblies. A longitudinal analysis of the design and reform of assembly sizes in democracies around the world
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DOI：
10.1016/j.electstud.2015.10.001
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发表时间：
2015-12-01
影响因子：
2.3
通讯作者：
Otjes, Simon
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jacobs, Kristof;Otjes, Simon
为什么议员们会投票支持一项减少他们自己立法机构席位的法案？毕竟，这就像是“火鸡为圣诞节投票”。2008年的经济危机引发了关于减少议员人数的辩论，这一问题变得更加紧迫。然而，我们对装配尺寸（变更）的了解有限。在这项研究中，我们开发了一个新的理论框架，并进行了实证检验。我们提出三个主要的解释：预期规模（基于人口规模）和实际规模之间的差距，有效的政党数量和经济衰退引起的选民敌意。我们使用OLS回归（1800-2008）和事件历史分析（1945-2008）对所有民主国家的框架进行了测试。我们发现，人口和组装规模之间的强有力的连接时，这些组件最初设计。大会规模的增加受到人口增长和缔约方有效数量的影响。减少的主要原因是最近经历了经济衰退。(C)2015爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
Why would parliamentarians vote for a bill reducing the number of seats of their own legislature? After all, this would resemble 'turkeys voting for Christmas.' This question is all the more pressing as the 2008 economic crisis triggered debates about reducing the number of parliamentarians. However, our knowledge of (changes to) assembly sizes is limited. In this study we develop a novel theoretical framework and test it empirically. We advance three main explanations: the gap between the expected size (based on population size) and the actual one, the effective number of parties and perceived voter hostility stemming from economic recessions. We test the framework using OLS regression (1800-2008) and event history analysis (1945-2008) for all democracies. We find a strong connection between population and assembly size when these assemblies are originally designed. Increases in assembly size are influenced by population growth and the effective number of parties. Reductions are influenced mainly by having recently experienced an economic recession. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.