Declining vulnerability to river floods and the global benefits of adaptation
Declining vulnerability to river floods and the global benefits of adaptation
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1414439112
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发表时间：
2015-05-05
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Ward, Philip J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jongman, Brenden;Winsemius, Hessel C.;Ward, Philip J.
河流洪水对全球的影响是巨大的，而且还在上升。有效适应日益增加的风险需要深入了解风险的物理和社会经济驱动因素。虽然洪水灾害和暴露的建模已经有了很大的改进，但关于世界各地社会脆弱性的时空模式仍然缺乏令人信服的证据。由于这一知识差距，脆弱性对全球洪水风险的影响尚未得到充分了解，目前对未来死亡人数和损失的预测是基于简单的假设，或者不包括脆弱性。我们首次（据我们所知）表明，可以通过洪水危害和暴露的动态高分辨率建模来估计世界各地河流洪水脆弱性的趋势和波动。我们发现，1980年至2010年间，人均收入的增加与全球脆弱性的下降相吻合，这反映在受洪水影响的人口和国内生产总值中死亡率和损失的下降上。结果还表明，由于发展中国家的脆弱性降低趋势相对较强，低收入和高收入国家的脆弱性水平一直在趋同。最后，我们给出了100种不同情景和模型组合下的洪水损失和死亡预测，以及三种可能的全球脆弱性情景。这些预测强调，实际的洪水风险主要是由人类行为造成的，未来的风险增加可以通过有效的减灾战略在很大程度上得到控制。
The global impacts of river floods are substantial and rising. Effective adaptation to the increasing risks requires an in-depth understanding of the physical and socioeconomic drivers of risk. Whereas the modeling of flood hazard and exposure has improved greatly, compelling evidence on spatiotemporal patterns in vulnerability of societies around the world is still lacking. Due to this knowledge gap, the effects of vulnerability on global flood risk are not fully understood, and future projections of fatalities and losses available today are based on simplistic assumptions or do not include vulnerability. We show for the first time (to our knowledge) that trends and fluctuations in vulnerability to river floods around the world can be estimated by dynamic high-resolution modeling of flood hazard and exposure. We find that rising per-capita income coincided with a global decline in vulnerability between 1980 and 2010, which is reflected in decreasing mortality and losses as a share of the people and gross domestic product exposed to inundation. The results also demonstrate that vulnerability levels in low-and high-income countries have been converging, due to a relatively strong trend of vulnerability reduction in developing countries. Finally, we present projections of flood losses and fatalities under 100 individual scenario and model combinations, and three possible global vulnerability scenarios. The projections emphasize that materialized flood risk largely results from human behavior and that future risk increases can be largely contained using effective disaster risk reduction strategies.