Drought Risk under Climate and Land Use Changes: Implication to Water Resource Availability at Catchment Scale
Drought Risk under Climate and Land Use Changes: Implication to Water Resource Availability at Catchment Scale
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DOI：
10.3390/w11091790
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发表时间：
2019-09-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Ragab, Ragab
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Afzal, Muhammad;Ragab, Ragab
虽然气候变化预测是由全球模型产生的，但研究气候变化对水资源的影响通常是在流域尺度上进行的，在流域尺度上进行测量，并做出水管理决策。在这项研究中，英国的弗罗姆集水区作为英格兰米德兰的一个例子进行了调查。DiCaSM模型使用UKCP 09未来气候变化情景进行应用。气候预测表明，地下水补给量和径流量的最大降幅预计出现在2080年代高排放情景下。在中等和高排放情景下，模型结果显示，干旱事件的频率和严重程度将是最高的。干旱指数，侦察干旱指数，RDI，土壤水分亏缺，SMD和湿润指数，WI，预测未来干旱事件的严重程度增加的高排放情景。阔叶林面积的增加会减少径流和地下水补给。城市扩张会增加地表径流。减少冬大麦和冬牧草的种植，增加油菜的种植，会增加SMD，并使径流量略有减少。这项研究的结果是有帮助的水资源的规划和管理，考虑气候和土地利用变化的影响，在地表水和地下水资源的可用性。
Although the climate change projections are produced by global models, studying the impact of climatic change on water resources is commonly investigated at catchment scale where the measurements are taken, and water management decisions are made. For this study, the Frome catchment in the UK was investigated as an example of midland England. The DiCaSM model was applied using the UKCP09 future climate change scenarios. The climate projections indicate that the greatest decrease in groundwater recharge and streamflow was projected under high emission scenarios in the 2080s. Under the medium and high emission scenarios, model results revealed that the frequency and severity of drought events would be the highest. The drought indices, the Reconnaissance Drought Index, RDI, Soil Moisture Deficit, SMD and Wetness Index, WI, predicted an increase in the severity of future drought events under the high emission scenarios. Increasing broadleaf forest area would decrease streamflow and groundwater recharge. Urban expansion could increase surface runoff. Decreasing winter barley and grass and increasing oil seed rape, would increase SMD and slightly decrease river flow. Findings of this study are helpful in the planning and management of the water resources considering the impact of climate and land use changes on variability in the availability of surface and groundwater resources.