Spatio-temporal patterns and risk factors of foot-and-mouth disease in Malawi between 1957 and 2019
Spatio-temporal patterns and risk factors of foot-and-mouth disease in Malawi between 1957 and 2019
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DOI：
10.1016/j.prevetmed.2022.105639
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发表时间：
2022-04-18
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Njoka, Poya
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chimera, Elizabeth T.;Fosgate, Geoffrey T.;Njoka, Poya
口蹄疫（FMD）是一种重要的牲畜疾病，会造成短期和长期的生产损失，并阻碍当地和国际贸易。为了进入利润丰厚的国外市场并改善当地贸易，需要采取有效的预防和控制策略。尽管口蹄疫在马拉维已存在 60 多年，但对该国口蹄疫的动态和驱动因素知之甚少。一项基于回顾性数据的建模研究旨在建立马拉维口蹄疫的时空分布并确定与口蹄疫相关的危险因素。进行回顾性时空分析并进行匹配的病例对照研究以调查危险因素。 2000 年之后，报告的口蹄疫爆发数量明显增加，并且该疾病已蔓延到以前未受影响的地区。确定了两个重要的口蹄疫时空集群；一个在南部地区，另一个在北部地区。对仅指示病例（首次发现地点）的分析也发现了两个集群，一个位于北部地区，另一个位于南部地区。较高的肉牛密度 (p = 0.023)、较高的生猪密度 (p = 0.043) 和增加的距野生动物保护区的距离 (p = 0.036) 与 FMD 风险呈正相关，而距国际边界 (p = 0.008) 和道路 (p = 0.034) 的距离增加则与 FMD 风险降低相关。早年（1957-1981年），南部和北部地区出现了口蹄疫高风险区，而中部地区则没有。在研究期结束时（2019 年），中部地区口蹄疫风险的增加可能归因于该地区牲畜密度的增加。这些发现提供了对口蹄疫发生模式的深入了解，这将促进明智的决策，以逐步控制该地区的口蹄疫。
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is an important livestock disease causing short-term and long-term production losses and hindering local and international trade. To gain access to lucrative foreign markets and also improve local trade, there is a need to employ effective preventive and control strategies. Although FMD has been present in Malawi for over 60 years, little knowledge is available concerning the dynamics and drivers of FMD in the country. A modelling study based on retrospective data was conducted to establish the spatio-temporal distribution and determine the risk factors associated with FMD in Malawi. A retrospective space-time analysis was performed and a matched case-control study was carried out to investigate risk factors. The number of reported FMD outbreaks has descriptively increased after 2000 and the disease has spread to previously unaffected areas. Two significant spatio-temporal clusters of FMD were identified; one in the southern region and the other in the northern region. An analysis of only index cases (first detected locations) also detected two clusters with one in the northern region and the other in the southern region. Higher beef cattle density (p = 0.023), higher pig density (p = 0.043) and increased distance to wildlife protected areas (p = 0.036) were positively associated with the risk of FMD while increased distances to international borders (p = 0.008) and roads (p = 0.034) were associated with reduced risk of FMD. High FMD risk areas were observed in the southern and northern regions but not in the central region during the early years (1957-1981). The more recent increase in FMD risk at the end of the study period (2019) in the central region might be attributed to increases in livestock density in this region. These findings provide insight into the pattern of FMD occurrence that will promote informed decisions for the progressive control of FMD in the region.