THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF GREEN GROWTH: CASES FROM SOUTHERN AFRICA
THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF GREEN GROWTH: CASES FROM SOUTHERN AFRICA
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绿色增长的政治经济：来自南非的案例
DOI：
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发表时间：
2012
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通讯作者：
J. Thurlow
中科院分区：
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作者：
D. Resnick;F. Tarp;J. Thurlow
摘要绿色增长的概念意味着广泛的发展目标，如创造就业、经济繁荣和减贫，可以很容易地与环境可持续性相协调。然而，本文认为，绿色增长不是双赢的，而是类似于大多数类型的政策改革，这些改革主张接受短期调整成本，以期获得长期收益。特别是，绿色增长政策往往鼓励发展中国家重新设计其国家战略，其方式可能与自然比较优势和过去的投资不一致。反过来，往往有相当大的反改革联盟，其利益可能与绿色增长议程相冲突。我们通过马拉维、莫桑比克和南非的案例研究来说明这一论点，这些国家分别实施了涉及无机肥料、生物燃料生产和煤基能源的发展战略。这些国家中的每一个都在追求环境上次优的战略，但仍在满足关键的发展需求，包括粮食安全、燃料和电力。我们表明，采用绿色增长方法不仅经济代价高昂，而且还会在国内造成巨大阻力，尤其是在穷人中。版权所有©2012 John Wiley&Sons，Ltd.
SUMMARY The concept of Green Growth implies that a wide range of developmental objectives, such as job creation, economic prosperity and poverty alleviation, can be easily reconciled with environmental sustainability. This article, however, argues that rather than being win–win, Green Growth is similar to most types of policy reforms that advocate the acceptance of short‐term adjustment costs in the expectation of long‐term gains. In particular, Green Growth policies often encourage developing countries to redesign their national strategies in ways that might be inconsistent with natural comparative advantages and past investments. In turn, there are often sizeable anti‐reform coalitions whose interests may conflict with a Green Growth agenda. We illustrate this argument by using case studies of Malawi, Mozambique and South Africa, which are engaged in development strategies that involve inorganic fertilizers, biofuel production and coal‐based energy, respectively. Each of these countries is pursuing an environmentally suboptimal strategy but nonetheless addressing critical development needs, including food security, fuel and electricity. We show that adopting a Green Growth approach would not only be economically costly but also generate substantial domestic resistance, especially among the poor. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.