Potential health benefits of controlling dust emissions in Beijing.
Potential health benefits of controlling dust emissions in Beijing.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envpol.2016.03.021
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发表时间：
2016-06
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
J. Meng;Junfeng Liu;S. Fan;Chuyun Kang;K. Yi;Yanli Cheng;Xing Shen;S. Tao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Meng;Junfeng Liu;S. Fan;Chuyun Kang;K. Yi;Yanli Cheng;Xing Shen;S. Tao
虽然细颗粒物(即PM2.5)对人类健康的不利影响已得到公认，但对其具体成分对健康的影响却知之甚少。在过去的十年中，北京的年平均粉尘浓度约为14∼g/mμ3，这一数值对该市2,000万居民构成了巨大威胁。在这项研究中，我们量化了2000年至2011年发生的粉尘暴露对北京潜在的长期健康损害。在北京，每年有近4,000例(95%可信区间：1,000-7,000)的过早死亡可能与长期的粉尘暴露有关，而这些死亡中有20%可归因于肺癌。对北京市早逝年际变化的分解分析表明，粉尘浓度决定了早逝的年际变化趋势，而人口增长和肺癌死亡率推动了早逝的上升趋势。我们建议，如果北京采取有效措施，将粉尘浓度(例如，控制道路粉尘和建筑工地扬尘的再悬浮)降至与纽约市相当的水平，与之相关的过早死亡将显著减少。这一建议为北京的污染控制提供了“易如反掌”的建议，这些建议将极大地造福北京的公众健康。
Although the adverse impact of fine particulate matter (i.e., PM2.5) on human health has been well acknowledged, little is known of the health effects of its specific constituents. Over the past decade, the annual average dust concentrations in Beijing were approximately ∼14 μg m−3, a value that poses a great threat to the city's 20 million residents. In this study, we quantify the potential long-term health damages in Beijing resulting from the dust exposure that occurred from 2000 to 2011. Each year in Beijing, nearly 4000 (95% CI: 1000–7000) premature deaths may be associated with long-term dust exposure, and ∼20% of these deaths are attributed to lung cancer. A decomposition analysis of the inter-annual variability of premature deaths in Beijing indicates that dust concentrations determine the year-to-year tendency, whereas population growth and lung cancer mortality rates drive the increasing tendency of premature death. We suggest that if Beijing takes effective measures towards reducing dust concentrations (e.g., controlling the resuspension of road dust and the fugitive dust from construction sites) to a level comparable to that of New York City's, the associated premature deaths will be significantly reduced. This recommendation offers “low-hanging fruit” suggestions for pollution control that would greatly benefit the public health in Beijing.