The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity:: Causes and implications
The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity:: Causes and implications
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DOI：
10.1126/science.1060040
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发表时间：
2001-07-20
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Gray, WM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Goldenberg, SB;Landsea, CW;Gray, WM
1995年至2000年是可靠记录中北大西洋飓风活动最频繁的年份。与过去24年（1971年至1994年）普遍较低的活动相比，过去6年整个流域的总体活动增加了一倍，主要飓风（大于或等于50米每秒）增加了2.5倍，影响加勒比海的飓风增加了五倍。更大的活动是由于北大西洋海面温度的同时上升和垂直风切变的减少。由于这些变化表现出数十年的时间尺度，目前飓风活动的高水平可能会持续10到40年。气候变化要求重新评估备灾和减灾战略。
The years 1995 to 2000 experienced the highest Level of North Atlantic hurricane activity in the reliable record. Compared with the generally low activity of the previous 24 years (1971 to 1994), the past 6 years have seen a doubling of overall activity for the whole basin, a 2.5-fold increase in major hurricanes (greater than or equal to 50 meters per second), and a fivefold increase in hurricanes affecting the Caribbean. The greater activity results from simultaneous increases in North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures and decreases in vertical wind shear. Because these changes exhibit a multidecadal time scale, the present high Level of hurricane activity is Likely to persist for an additional similar to 10 to 40 years. The shift in climate calls for a reevaluation of preparedness and mitigation strategies.