Regional industrial diversification: evidence from German gross value added
Regional industrial diversification: evidence from German gross value added
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区域产业多元化：来自德国总增加值的证据
DOI：
10.1007/s10037-016-0105-4
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
K. Hafner
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
K. Hafner
本文的思路是将现代投资组合理论应用于不同经济活动的总增加值份额，以确定行业投资组合是否有效。使用德国联邦各州2011年的国民账户(Volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnung)，我对它们的总增加值份额进行了数值模拟，以确定德国每个联邦州经济活动的“有效均值-方差组合”(Markowitz，J Financ7：77-91,1952)。本文发现，他们2011年的行业投资组合实际上是不有效的，重新安排经济活动的份额会增加总增加值，并降低其风险。根据数字结果，德国联邦各州--至少是西德--可能会从工业经济转向以知识为基础的贸易和服务经济。对于德国国民账户的不同样本期，结果是稳健的，数值模拟的基本假设通过使用欧盟国家的样本得到了证实。
The idea of this paper is to apply modern portfolio theory to the gross value added shares of different economic activities in order to determine whether or not industry portfolios are efficient. Using the national accounts (Volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnung)of Germany’s federal states for 2011, I run numerical simulations of their gross value added shares to determine the set of “efficient mean-variance combinations” (Markowitz, J Financ 7:77–91, 1952) of economic activities for each German federal state. The paper finds that their 2011 industry portfolios are in fact not efficient, and that rearranging the shares of economic activities increase total gross value added and decrease its risk. According to the numerical results, German federal states—at least Western Germany—could move from industrial to knowledge-based trading and service economies. The results are robust for different sample periods of Germany’s national accounts and the underlying assumptions of the numerical simulations are confirmed by using a sample of EU countries.