Dominant Mode of Climate Variability, Intermodel Diversity, and Projected Future Changes over the Summertime Western North Pacific Simulated in the CMIP3 Models
Dominant Mode of Climate Variability, Intermodel Diversity, and Projected Future Changes over the Summertime Western North Pacific Simulated in the CMIP3 Models
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DOI：
10.1175/2011jcli3907.1
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发表时间：
2011-08
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Y. Kosaka;H. Nakamura
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Y. Kosaka;H. Nakamura
摘要：分析了耦合模式比对项目 (CMIP3) 第三阶段的一组多模式二十世纪气候模拟，以评估太平洋-日本 (PJ) 遥相关模式的模式再现性。它是夏季西北太平洋（WNP）的主要低频异常模式，其特征是对流层低层纬向拉长涡度异常的经向偶极子和热带WNP上空的异常降水。大多数模型都能相当好地再现 PJ 形态作为主要异常形态之一或其组合。对于那些能够更好地再现 WNP 气候平均状态的模型，模式的模型再现性往往更高。此外，发现 WNP 夏季气候平均场（特别是对流层低层）的模式间多样性很大，并且最强烈地投射到观测到的 PJ 模式上。尽管如此，多模型集成 (MME) 的平均值...
AbstractA set of multimodel twentieth-century climate simulations for phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) is analyzed to assess the model reproducibility of the Pacific–Japan (PJ) teleconnection pattern. It is the dominant low-frequency anomaly pattern over the summertime western North Pacific (WNP), characterized by a meridional dipole of zonally elongated vorticity anomalies in the lower troposphere and by anomalous precipitation over the tropical WNP. Most of the models can reproduce the PJ pattern reasonably well as one of the leading anomaly patterns or their combination. The model reproducibility of the pattern tends to be higher for those models in which the climatological-mean state over the WNP is better reproduced. Furthermore, intermodel diversity in the summertime climatological-mean fields over the WNP, especially in the lower troposphere, is found to be large and projected most strongly onto the observed PJ pattern. Nevertheless, the multimodel ensemble (MME) mean of...