The 2009 H1N1 Pandemic Influenza Virus: What Next?
The 2009 H1N1 Pandemic Influenza Virus: What Next?
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DOI：
10.1128/mbio.00211-10
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发表时间：
2010-09-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Fauci, Anthony S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Morens, David M.;Taubenberger, Jeffery K.;Fauci, Anthony S.
历史表明，2009年大流行的H1N1流感病毒面临灭绝，除非它发生变异，以避免已经很高的全球人口免疫力。潜在的免疫逃逸机制包括抗原漂移、通过遗传重配的抗原转移和亚型内重配。追溯到世纪后期，过去的大流行病毒的进化历史进行检查，以更好地了解2009年大流行病毒在不久的将来所面临的免疫压力的性质和程度。虽然人类流感病毒经常让我们感到惊讶，但现有证据表明，如果目前的大流行病毒没有灭绝，它将继续造成低或中等死亡率。
History suggests that the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus faces extinction unless it mutates to avoid already high global population immunity. The immune escape mechanisms potentially at its disposal include antigenic drift, antigenic shift via genetic reassortment, and intrasubtypic reassortment. Going back to the late 19th century, the evolutionary histories of past pandemic viruses are examined in an effort to better understand the nature and extent of the immune pressures faced by the 2009 pandemic virus in the immediate future. While human influenza viruses have often surprised us, available evidence leads to the hope that the current pandemic virus will continue to cause low or moderate mortality rates if it does not become extinct.